Al-Shabaab Concerns in Burundi are Legitimate
Following a week of violence and unrest as a coup attempted to oust current Burundi president, Pierre Nkurunziza finally made a formal statement. However, Nkurunziza did not address the failed coup, government response, or his bid to run for a third term in office. The country’s leader instead responded to the unrest by firing three cabinet minsters, the defense, external relations, and trade ministers.
The East African Community held a meeting in Tanzania on Wednesday to discuss the situation in Burundi. Unlike South Africa, the EAC did not call for Nkurunziza to withdraw from the election, instead suggesting that he delay the election date. The leaders of Kenya, Rwanda, Uganda, and Tanzania did make it clear that the election still needed to take place within the constitutionally designated electoral cycle, which ends in late August 2015.
During his statement, the President ignored questions about the current situation and instead focused his statement on Burundi’s response to al-Shabaab, a Somali terror group. Nkurunziza stated that the government has been preoccupied with battling al Shabaab threats to Burundi and their allies, Kenya and Uganda.
As a result of Nkurnziza’s statements and deflection of questions regarding his position, a spokesman from al-Shabaab suggested that the statements were only intended to divert attention from the coup and his election bid. While the statements may have served to divert attention away from the political unrest, they are not unwarranted.
On May 15th, a video was released that allegedly contained an al-Shabaab jihadist claiming that the group was going to attack Uganda and Burundi. An unnamed source claims that the Burundi government fabricated the video. Regardless of the validity of the most recent video, al-Shabaab has proven that it poses a real threat to countries neighboring Somalia.
Most indicative of intent to attack Burundi are photos released by al-Shabaab in 2011. The photos display the bodies of 76 Burundi soldiers lined up that had been captured by the jihadists after an ambush. Most indicative of impending attack is the November 2014 U.S. travel warning based on intelligence of the al Shabaab threat in Burundi.
While al-Shabaab is most notoriously known for its presence in Somalia and Kenya, its presence in Tanzania and Uganda has been growing recently. Al Shabaab is on record as threatening attacks in all countries participating in the African Union mission in Somalia (AMISOM). There have been increased jihadist attacks in Tanzania linked to al-Shabaab. A report released by the Institute for National Strategic Studies details all of the recent attacks in Tanzania conducted by jihadists. Not only have these attacks been consistent since 2012, but the study reveals that they are on the rise. In 2010, al-Shabaab bombed two locations in Uganda while civilians were watching the World Cup.
It’s difficult to know if al-Shabaab’s strike capability has matured to an imminent threat but the intent and capability are well documented. While Nkurunziza’s statement may have conflated the issues, both the political unrest and the threat from al-Shabaab are serious issues that need to be addressed. Al-Shabaab has demonstrated its ability to launch successful attacks in countries despite a lack of territory. Foreign actors, the EAC, and the Burundi people, should take Nkurunziza’s statement seriously, but not allow it to dissolve focus on devising a peaceful solution to political instability in Burundi.
