Could US Marines sustain a war with China? Officers warn of Pacific weaknesses

This piece, originally published by South China Morning Post, quotes CSP Senior Fellow Grant Newsham.

Grant Newsham November 12, 2026
USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN 71)

SOUTH CHINA SEA (April 6, 2021) – U.S. Sailors prepare for flight operations on the flight deck of the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN 71) April 6, 2021. The Theodore Roosevelt Carrier Strike Group is on a scheduled deployment to the U.S. 7th Fleet area of operations. As the U.S. Navy’s largest forward-deployed fleet, 7th Fleet routinely operates and interacts with 35 maritime nations while conducting missions to preserve and protect a free and open Indo-Pacific Region. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Alexander B. Williams)

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US Marines deployed across the western Pacific could struggle to sustain their forces, move missile batteries and secure permission to launch operations from allied territory in a conflict with China, according to assessments by Marine Corps officers and independent analysts.
Writing separately in the November issue of the US Naval Institute’s Proceedings journal, retired lieutenant general Stephen Sklenka and serving Lieutenant Colonel Merritt Mitchell identified vulnerabilities in the logistical and political arrangements supporting dispersed marine operations along the first island chain that stretches from Japan through Taiwan and the Philippines towards Borneo.

Sklenka warned that in a conflict Chinese attacks on American bases and supply routes could isolate forward-deployed marines, while Mitchell questioned whether dispersed units could relocate quickly enough to evade Chinese strikes or secure permission to operate from allied territory.

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The latter political challenge was underscored on November 6 when Philippine Defence Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jnr reaffirmed that, under the Philippine constitution, United States forces could not launch offensive operations from Philippine territory in the event of hostilities involving Beijing and Taipei. The restriction also covered facilities under the allies’ Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement.

Teodoro’s remarks illustrated a broader concern raised by Mitchell, an instructor at the Marine Corps Command and Staff College, who said peacetime access to allied facilities did not guarantee permission for military operations during a conflict.

“Coalition fracture can deny access more effectively than a missile barrage,” he wrote.

Grant Newsham, a retired US Marine Corps colonel, said the question of where dispersed units could deploy “was not well thought out in the first instance”, although the US Marine Corps had since made “considerable progress” with Japan and the Philippines.

Read more HERE.

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