Houthis Capture Aden, What’s Next For The Saudis?

Houthi rebels seized the Maasheeq presidential palace in Aden after an intense battle through the city’s commercial center today, despite stiff resistance from Saudi air support over the past two days. Early reports about a possibly Saudi-led amphibious landing at Aden were false; a port official indicates that the warship was a Chinese vessel sent to the area to evacuate foreign nationals. The loss of Aden, the last real stronghold of pro-Hadi forces, is a major blow to the Saudi-led coalition. Fighting is still underway as loyalist forces still maintain control of several sectors of Aden. As long as Aden remains in rebel hands, President Hadi will find it nearly impossible to return to Yemen. Furthermore, with Aden in Houthi control, Iran may find it a convenient port and base for any operations near the Bab el-Mandeb strait, and to protect shipping from east Africa to Iran.

The fall of Aden comes just hours after Al-Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula conducted a raid on the Hadrawmawt prison complex in the coastal city of Mukalla in southeast Yemen. 300 prisoners were freed, including Al-Qaeda top regional commander Khalid Batarfi. Whatever the ideological leanings of the prisoners, past events have shown that these prison breaks make excellent recruitment opportunities for Al-Qaeda. Al-Qaeda militants were also able to seize Mukalla’s radio headquarters and also engaged in combat with security forces throughout the city.

Saudi Arabia has also confirmed the first Saudi casualty since their entrance into the conflict a week ago. Border guard Cpl. Ali Yahya al-Maliki was confirmed killed along with ten other Saudis wounded when his observation post in Asir province was fired upon. With the situation in Yemen deteriorating even further, and the inability of the airstrikes to put an end to the Houthi rebellion, Saudi Arabia and their Gulf State allies may be forced to send ground troops into Yemen.