Al Shabaab Showing Signs of Resurgence in Southern and Central Somalia

Within the past week, the Al Qaeda-linked terrorist organization Al Shabaab has made several advances in the lower Shebelle region of Somalia. Multiple sources have confirmed that the group now holds the towns of Mubarak, Tortorow, and Awdheegle. Hundreds of residents fled as the militants converged on the three towns.

African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) troops reportedly withdrew from five different military bases and towns, which were immediately seized by Al Shabaab forces. These included the aforementioned towns, as well as the town of Wanlaweyn, which was later retaken by the Somali army. When Al Shabaab entered Wanlaweyn, they warned residents to not support the government, but they then left without indicating where they were going, leaving the town open for AMISOM to reenter.

These advances come in the wake of Al Shabaab’s June 26 targeting of an AMISOM base in Leego run by Burundi troops, leaving dozens dead. The attack was coordinated between three Al Shabaab units coming from different regions.

AMISOM has denied reports that its troops have fled from Al Shabaab, leaving towns vulnerable.

The Al Shabaab resurgence in recent weeks is worrisome. The towns in the lower Shebelle region are all less than 100 miles southwest of Mogadishu, the capital of Somalia. They are southeast of Leego, which is less than 100 miles west of Mogadishu.

Al Shabaab operates primarily in southern Somalia and wants to overthrow the government in Mogadishu. The map above shows their approximate locations to the south and east of the city, creating a triangle with Mogadishu as the third point. These locations are incredibly strategic; the triangle will allow the group to close in on the city from two sides, cutting off roads into the capital and making pushing Al Shabaab back difficult.

Also worrisome is the decreasing capability of AMISOM to fight Al Shabaab. Due to various political factors, AMISOM is becoming weaker, and the countries involved are having problems working together. They each have needs for their soldiers that extend beyond the scope of the eradication of Al Shabaab, leading to a shortage of personnel and equipment necessary to the fight in Somalia.

The US reportedly has up to 120 people operating in Somalia, supplementing the Somali and AMISOM effort against Al Shabaab. Though the spokesman for the US AFRICOM mission will not provide details on their work or locations, multiple Somali and African Union officials have confirmed that many are stationed in Kismayo, a southern port city. They have also confirmed that a second cell of US personnel is in Baledogle, an airport in the lower Shebelle  near which is dangerously close to Al Shabaab operations at Wanlaweyn.

The US has troops in Somalia to provide support, not to fight the war. They have allegedly been helping the Somali army and AMISOM on special operations and through the use of drones, but their small numbers will leave them vulnerable if local forces prove ineffective at repelling Al Shabaab. Somalia and AMISOM show signs of faltering, and as they retreat, they will leave their US counterparts unprotected in the heart of militant-controlled territory. Unless the US bolsters AMISOM and Somali efforts to fight Al Shabaab and protect American forces on the ground, we can expect that they will be forced to continue conceding territory. This will only pave the way for Al Shabaab to overrun Mogadishu.