Cutting Off Saudi Arabia Would Only Embolden its Worst Impulses

The rationale behind Macron’s position stems from beyond Egypt’s role in fighting terrorism in the region. The French president in the past has expressed concern that Cairo would seek support from the West’s adversaries, including Russia and China, if it did not obtain sufficient aid from Europe.

A Biden administration would face a similar impasse regarding Saudi Arabia. Riyadh considers Iran and its potential to acquire a nuclear bomb an existential threat. Along with its Gulf neighbors, Riyadh fiercely campaigned against the Obama administration’s 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), believing this agreement would only improve Iran’s economic standing and therefore improve its capabilities to create a nuclear weapon.

Riyadh’s determination to procure deterrent capabilities in light of Iran’s arsenal buildup has led to the development of its own nuclear program, but the unreliability of U.S. assurances prompted it to seek assistance with this program elsewhere. In August, Riyadh turned to China for help in advancing its nuclear technology. This “secret” arrangement led to the creation of a facility for extracting uranium yellowcake from uranium ore in northwest Saudi Arabia.

This development highlights that without clear and sustained U.S. support, Gulf countries will open dialogue with U.S. adversaries, including China.