Bush’s Chemical Chickens Come Home To Roost: Iraqi Crisis Shows Folly Of Chemical Arms Policy

(Washington, D.C.): The dispatch of U.S. forces to confront Iraqi aggression in the Persian Gulf has put the spotlight of public attention squarely on one of the most serious threats facing American and allied interests in the region: Saddam Hussein’s ability — and demonstrated willingness — to use chemical weapons (CW) to advance his objectives. The Center for Security Policy believes that, in so doing, the present crisis also puts into sharp relief one of the Bush Administration’s most serious policy mistakes — its misguided belief that arms control will prevent the likes of Saddam Hussein from fielding and utilizing chemical arms.

"It is folly to think that a man whose dishonesty has been cited by President Bush as grounds for introducing American troops into Saudi Arabia will actually faithfully observe a new international accord banning chemical weapons — especially when he has violated an existing agreement prohibiting their use," said Frank J. Gaffney, Jr., the Center’s director.

Gaffney added, "Regrettable as it is, Saddam Hussein exemplifies an increasingly prevalent attitude in the developing world: Chemical weapons are an attractive and highly affordable weapon of mass destruction. Equally well understood by his ilk is the reality that arms control will deny law-abiding nations stockpiles of such arms, but not significantly impinge upon the ability of renegade states like Iraq to possess CW."

This reality is documented in an analysis originally published by the Center on 3 October 1989, entitled Banning Chemical Weapons: Negotiating U.S. Unilateral Disarmament. The Center re-released today excerpts of this paper dealing with issues pertinent to the present Iraqi CW situation including: the insurmountable obstacles to a truly "global" and "verifiable" chemical weapons ban, the genesis of President Bush’s policy in this area,retain a credible ability to retaliate in-kind if attacked with chemical arms. and the need for the United States to

"On account of the President’s own illusions that a CW ban will solve the problem of chemical weapons, both Mr. Bush and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Colin Powell, are being forced to do ‘whistling in the dark’ routine on this aspect of the Iraqi threat," Gaffney observed. "Instead of trying simply to put a brave face on the risk of chemical attack by Iraq and blithely assuring the public about the adequacy of the United States’ ability to deal with such an attack if it comes, the Bush Administration should seize this crisis as an opportunity to walk away from its misguided policy on chemical arms."

The Center believes that, particularly in light of the Iraqi crisis, the following considerations demand that the United States return to ‘first principles’ of chemical deterrence — relying on effective, in-kind capabilities to deter chemical attack, not wishful thinking about arms control bans:

• The United States has far less ability to deter or respond in-kind to CW attacks than it should, thanks in no small part to the Bush policy. The cumulative effect of a year-and-a-half of minimizing the need for an effective retaliatory stockpile, agreeing to terminate production of modern, safe chemical munitions and cancelling development programs for binary bombs and rocket warheads have reduced present options considerably.

 

• Trying to thwart Iraqi chemical attacks by simply protecting troops against their effects is problematic, at best, especially in a desert environment. This is an unalterable fact of life given the inherent and severe limitations associated with even the best CW protective gear and most highly trained troops. And

 

• A nuclear response to a chemical attack — while theoretically possible — is almost certainly out of the question politically and therefore not a credible deterrent. As a practical matter, first use of nuclear weapons by the United States, even in response to a devastating CW attack would almost certainly reverse the present international isolation of Iraq and immensely contribute to Saddam Hussein’s campaign to make America the pariah in the Arab world and beyond."