Casey Symposium On Asia Illuminates High Stakes In Debate On Renewal Of M.F.N. For China

(Washington, D.C.) On the eve of an
historic vote in the House of
Representatives on President Clinton’s
proposed renewal of Most Favored Nation
(MFN) status for China, the William J.
Casey Institute of the Center for
Security Policy today released a summary
of its highly relevant Casey Symposium,
held at the ANA Hotel in Washington on 9
June 1997.

This half-day-long Symposium drew more
than 120 former and present government
officials, businessmen, diplomats and
public policy analysts. It featured
important interventions by, among others,
three Lead Discussants — Richard
Bernstein, a veteran
correspondent and co-author of the
critically acclaimed new book, The
Coming Conflict with China; Senator
Jon Kyl (R-AZ), a member of the
Senate Intelligence, Judiciary and Energy
and Natural Resources Committees; Ambassador
James R. Lilley, former
Assistant Secretary of Defense for
International Security Affairs and U.S.
Ambassador to the People’s Republic of
China and to South Korea — and the first
occupant of the Institute’s William J.
Casey Chair, Roger W. Robinson,
Jr., a former Vice President at
Chase Manhattan Bank and Senior Director
for International Economic Affairs at the
Reagan National Security Council.
Participants also heard from luncheon
speaker Senator Thad Cochran
(R-MS), a member of the Senate
Appropriations Committee and chairman of
the influential Government Affairs
Subcommittee on International Security,
Proliferation and Federal Services.

Highlights of the discussion detailed
in the six-page summary released today
include the observations that:

• The senior military and
  civilian leadership of the
  People’s Republic of China
  believe that China is engaged in
  a protracted confrontation with
  the United States.
• The PRC is pursuing a
  multifaceted strategy aimed at
  strengthening its position
  relative to and at the expense of
  the United States. Among
  the manifestations of this
  strategy’s implementation are:
  China’s vast strategic and
  conventional force modernization
  programs; espionage, technology
  theft and influence operations in
  the U.S.; global proliferation of
  weapons of mass destruction,
  ballistic missiles and other
  ordinance; predatory trade
  practices; and penetration of the
  American and international
  securities markets.
• The magnitude of the latter
  problem has, in the days since
  the Symposium, been put into
  still sharper relief. Last week China
  issued its first Eurobond
  offering denominated in
  Deutschmarks in a decade.
  The transaction of DM 500 million
  is expected to generate some $290
  million dollars. According to the
  18 June 1997 Asia Times,
  “China will not only be able
  to tap into Europe’s deepest
  investor base, but also will
  attract other continental
  investors for whom the currency
  risk is minimized by the
  possibility of European monetary
  union.” Regrettably, there
  currently exists no
  security-minded screening
  mechanism in the U.S. or
  Europe to differentiate
  between legitimate Chinese
  borrowers and those connected to
  the People’s Liberation Army and
  the Chinese intelligence
  services.
• For its part, the United
  States is not thinking
  strategically about how to deal
  with the challenge posed by a
  China pursuing such a zero-sum
  agenda. To the contrary,
  the Clinton Administration has
  adopted, for example, technology
  decontrol policies that are
  significantly contributing to
  Chinese efforts to enhance the
  power of its military and the
  competitiveness of its industrial
  base.
• Other developments in the region
  may exacerbate — and will
  certainly complicate —
  Sino-American ties. These
  include: a potential melt-down in
  North Korea; China’s takeover of
  Hong Kong and threats to Taiwan;
  and Japan’s potential for
  rearming if Beijing is seen as
  ascendant, the United States in
  decline and regional instability
  increasing.

The William J. Casey
Institute of the Center for Security
Policy will be represented in Hong Kong
on the occasion of that territory’s
surrender to Beijing by Mr. Robinson and
the Center’s Director, Frank J. Gaffney,
Jr. Click here for a copy of href=”index.jsp?section=papers&code=97-R_86at”>the full summary.