How the 106^th Congress Can Begin To Reestablish ‘Adult Supervision’ Over International Affairs: Kill the Kyoto Treaty

(Washington, D.C.): The next few weeks are likely to prove to be tough ones for U.S.
foreign
policy. No matter what happens in the election tomorrow, chickens hatched by the short-term,
expediency-driven strategies favored by the Clinton Administration are going to come home to
roost.⁽¹⁾

A Bill of Particulars

Russia

For example, there is the matter of Russia. Last week, the Kremlin formally
acknowledged
what has been obvious for months⁽²⁾ — the Yeltsin
era is over. In a remarkable testimonial to the
Russian president’s irrelevance, his spokesman announced last week that Yeltsin will no longer be
bothered with day-to-day operations of the Kremlin, devoting himself full-time instead to
“revising the constitution.” Translation: Power is now concentrated in the hands of an extremely
dangerous enemy of the United States, Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov, and
his allies.

During his decades of service in the KGB, Primakov developed close personal ties to such
unsavory characters as Iraq’s Saddam Hussein, Syria’s Hafez Assad and Libya’s Muammar
Quadafi. In his capacities as head of the intelligence service and as Foreign Minister, the career
spy promulgated what became known as the “Primakov Doctrine” — a foreign policy that
simultaneously secured aid from the West while thwarting its agenda at every turn. This policy
helped endear him to the emerging Russian “Red-Brown” coalition, an
axis of convenience between the Communists and the nationalists increasingly calling the shots in
Moscow.

These forces in the parliament, together with their soul-mates on the Primakov team of
warmed-over Soviet apparatchiks and oligarchs in the Kremlin, are effectively rewriting the
Yeltsin-dictated constitution without the president. U.S. policy interests are
unlikely to be served by
the changes now taking place in the Russian power structure — changes that are accruing
to the advantage of xenophobes and ideologues and that are unraveling the Yeltsin
“reforms” upon which the Clinton team had bet the farm.

Iraq

Then there is the matter of the meltdown of U.S. policy towards Iraq. At this writing,
the
Clinton Administration is engaged in intensive hand-wringing about Saddam’s latest act of
defiance. With his complete suspension of “cooperation” (such as it has been) with the United
Nations Special Commission on Iraq (UNSCOM), the fat is squarely in the fire: Apart
from a
teetering sanctions regime, there is now no check whatsoever upon the restoration of Iraq’s
weapons of mass destruction programs. Clearly, the UN is neither willing nor able —
with the
likes of Primakov wielding Security Council vetoes — to mount an effective response.
Consequently, President Clinton’s insistence (at least through the election) that the UN must take
the lead in responding to Saddam’s latest provocations can only further embolden the Iraqi
dictator.

Serbia

Things are no better in Serbia, where the latest Clinton deal brokered with
another
ruthless thug, Slobodan Milosevic, is also not working out. The Butcher of Belgrade
has not
only gotten away with his most recent act of genocide, the “ethnic cleansing” of the Albanian
population of Kosovo. Milosevic is also demonstrating his complete contempt for the West in
general and the U.S. President and his special envoy, Richard Holbrooke, in particular. The
ongoing marauding by units of Serbian “special police” is keeping hundreds of thousands of
terrified Kosovar refugees displaced from shelter and at risk of mass annihilation as the Balkan
winter descends.⁽³⁾

The Kyoto Caper

Incredible as it may seem, instead of coming to grips with the immediate and long-term
implications of these serious foreign policy problems, Mr. Clinton’s major international
initiative of the week is supposed to be his signature on yet another defective treaty:
the
Kyoto Protocol to the Global Climate Change Treaty.

This action is intended to signal the Clinton Administration’s solidarity with environmental
zealots, starting with Vice President Al Gore, who have seized upon inconclusive scientific
evidence of a slight warming in the earth’s temperature to advance a Luddite campaign against
industrial society. Their principal villain: carbon dioxide (CO₂) and the internal
combustion
engines and industries that generate it. (Interestingly, a new study by the Arlington-based
Greening Earth Society argues persuasively that “carbon dioxide increases will confer a net
benefit on society”!⁽⁴⁾)

Challenge to the Congress

As it happens, the Administration appears to have given the decision to sign
the Kyoto
Protocol, which requires significant cuts in U.S. emissions of CO₂ and other
“greenhouse
gases,” no more thought than the shortsighted Clinton decisions to invest in Yeltsin, to rely
on Kofi Annan’s negotiations with Saddam and to authorize Dick Holbrooke to do another
deal with Milosevic. After all, the effect of signing the Protocol could be
to provoke a fight
with the Congress that the President apparently had hoped to leave to his
successor.

Under international law, the United States is bound to do nothing that would defeat the object
and
purpose of a treaty it has signed, even if it remains unratified, unless and until the government
makes known its intention not to adhere to the accord. Consequently, Congress, which has
overwhelmingly opposed the Kyoto Protocol, will be confronted with a different situation than
that of the past year. Since last December, the Administration has repeatedly tried — through
executive orders and programmatic action — to begin implementing the treaty without submitting
it for the Senate’s advice and consent. Should the President sign the Protocol, though,
the
U.S. will be obliged to begin taking steps that would enable it to meet the emissions
reductions schedule.

Congressional opponents of the Kyoto Protocol have rightly told the President that
if the
agreement is good enough to sign, it is good enough to submit for ratification. Of
course,
only the President can decide whether and when to submit a treaty for the Senate’s consideration.
If Mr. Clinton puts his signature on this accord, however, those who understand the
deleterious effects it will have on the Nation’s economy and security will have no choice but
to pursue legislation rejecting this treaty.⁽⁵⁾ Test
votes suggest that the necessary two-thirds
majority may exist in both chambers to override Mr. Clinton’s certain veto.

The Bottom Line

The 106^th Congress that will be elected tomorrow will have its work cut out for
it. Given the
wholesale failure of the Clinton Administration in the conduct of international affairs, and the
dangerous situations that have emerged at least in part as a result, the legislative branch must step
up to its constitutional responsibilities. A good place to start would be by rejecting the Kyoto
Protocol.

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1. For more on the Clinton approach dubbed “Wimpy diplomacy”
after its leitmotif (“I’ll gladly
pay you Tuesday for a signing ceremony today”), see the Center’s Decision
Brief entitled
Clinton Legacy Watch # 32: ‘Wimpy Diplomacy’ — ‘I’ll Gladly Pay You Tuesday’
for a
Signing Ceremony Today (No. 98-D 172, 13
October 1998).

2. See Restoration Watch # 10: Consolidation of
Power by Primakov Marks the End of the
Line for Reform in Russia (No. 98-D 161, 10
September 1998).

3. Assertions today by State Department spokesman James Rubin to
the effect that “the trend is in
the right direction” in Kosovo and that “the humanitarian crisis has been averted” are, to put it
mildly, premature.

4. Copies of In Defense of Carbon Dioxide: A Comprehensive
Review of Carbon Dioxide’s
Effects on Human Health, Welfare and the Environment may be obtained by contacting the
Greening Earth Society at 703-907-6168 or via the Society’s web site
(www.greeningearthsociety.org).

5. See Casey Institute Symposium on Global
Warming Suggests Case for — and Costs of —
Kyoto Treaty Are Unsustainable (No. 97-R
188, 5 December 1997), Clinton Tries to Steal a
March on Kyoto Treaty: Will the Senate Allow Implementation Without
Ratification? (No.
98-C 42, 9 March 1998) and Is the Administration Lying to the Senate About
Kyoto’s Adverse
Impact on National Security — Or Just Kidding Itself? ( href=”index.jsp?section=papers&code=98-C_70″>No. 98-C 70, 23 April 1998).