Rumsfeld Hits Two Home Runs

(Washington, D.C.): To say that once-and-future Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld has had a busy week would be an understatement. First, he dazzled Senators with his encyclopedic knowledge of U.S. defense and national security issues at his confirmation hearing yesterday. Then, in the course of his hearings, a report of potentially immense strategic significance that had been prepared over the past year under his direction as Chairman of the Commission to Assess United States National Security Space Management and Organization was issued.

As the Wall Street Journal correctly points out in its lead editorial published today, the second Rumsfeld Commission (the first, completed in 1998, profoundly reshaped the debate about missile defense by establishing the threat posed by long-range ballistic missiles is real and growing) makes the absolutely crucial central point, that

The U.S. has been muddling along, taking its pre-eminence for granted and leaving itself vulnerable to “a space Pearl Harbor” while other nations have been developing space programs apace. Space is a “vital national interest,” says retired Admiral David Jeremiah, who served on the panel. “We need higher expectations and more emphasis on doing than on word-smithing.”

This and other points in the Journal editorial and in the Rumsfeld II report track with observations and recommendations made in the course of the Center’s recent High-Level Roundtable Discussion entitled, “Space Power: What Is At Stake, What Will It Take?” See attached for copies of the highlights of this important Roundtable.

At the same time that Donald Rumsfeld’s confirmation hearing was taking place in the Armed Services Committee yesterday, the latest evidence of why he is precisely the Defense Secretary the nation needs at this point in history was being delivered elsewhere in the building.

The Rumsfeld Commission report on space, which was unveiled yesterday, is up there in importance with the report of the first Rumsfeld Commission, which warned in 1998 of the danger of ballistic missile attack. As if on cue, a month later North Korea provided real-life confirmation of the threat by testing a missile over the Sea of Japan. Rumsfeld I put the lie to the Clinton Administration’s blithe assertion that there is nothing to worry about.

This time the issue at hand is the not-unrelated subject of space power, what’s at stake and what it will take to ensure that the U.S. remains pre-eminent. Though the Defense Secretary-designate resigned from the commission the day he was nominated, the report is laced with Rumsfeld wisdom. For one thing, like Rumsfeld I, Rumsfeld II is both bipartisan and unanimous, which means its recommendations ought to be relatively easy to implement. For another, the organization and streamlining that the commission recommends reflect Mr. Rumsfeld’s experience as a CEO with his eye fixed firmly on the bottom line.

In this case, the bottom line is maintaining U.S. superiority in space. The commission’s main message is that the U.S. has been muddling along, taking its pre-eminence for granted and leaving itself vulnerable to “a space Pearl Harbor” while other nations have been developing space programs apace. Space is a “vital national interest,” says retired Admiral David Jeremiah, who served on the panel. “We need higher expectations and more emphasis on doing than on word-smithing.”

Among the commission’s recommendations are such no-brainers as satellite defenses, a fast-track program to develop a space-launch capability that can compete with the French and the Chinese, and better incentives for American students to study technology and engineering. But the heart of the report is its recommendations for restructuring the myriad Defense Department, military and intelligence bodies responsible for space programs with the aim of forcing them to work together more closely. The idea is to arrange things “so we get better policy judgments,” says Admiral Jeremiah.

Toward that end, the commission also recommends the establishment of a Presidential Space Advisory Board, similar to the Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board. It would be made up of experts from industry, government and science and would advise the President on what’s technologically feasible. And while the commission stops short of calling for the creation of a separate space force — favored by Senator Bob Smith, sponsor of the legislation setting up the commission — it makes it clear that that’s probably not too far off. Most of the commission’s recommendations for reorganization can be implemented in a matter of weeks if the President chooses, as Mr. Rumsfeld’s new boss almost certainly will.

The commission wasn’t afraid to tackle the trickier stuff, and it speaks plainly about weapons in space and arms control: Weapons in space are inevitable, it says, and the U.S. ought to review existing arms control obligations that get in the way of deploying a space-based deterrent. This matter-of-fact approach is sure to inflame those who think the Saddams of the world will stay out of space if the United Nations gets a few countries to sign a piece of paper telling them to. Land, sea and air are battlegrounds and “reality indicates that space will be no different,” says the report. Adds the Admiral: “We’ll have to be organized to do some kind of warfare in space.” We’re not organized now.

Anyone who doubts that space is where this century’s wars will take place would do well to take a look at the Chinese space program. The Hong Kong newspaper Sing Tao Daily reported last week on China’s ground test of a scary satellite weapon called a “parasite satellite.” This is a micro-satellite that could attach itself to just about any type of satellite with the object of jamming or destroying it if it received a command to do so. As Sing Tao put it, “to ensure winning in a future high-tech war, China’s military has been quietly working hard to develop asymmetrical combat capability so that it will become capable of completely paralyzing the enemy’s fighting system when necessary by ‘attacking selected vital points’ in the enemy’s key areas.” China’s not the only country working on micro-satellites; consider what could happen if Osama bin Laden got his hands on one and decided to use it as a weapon on U.S. satellites.

In his confirmation hearing yesterday, Mr. Rumsfeld got a chance to talk about space as well as to reiterate his commitment to a national missile defense. The two are of course closely tied; an effective NMD system is impossible without the effective use of space and both are impossible so long as the U.S. remains a party to the ABM Treaty. In our view, the best first step toward attaining both goals would be for President-elect Bush to use his Inaugural Address to announce the U.S. withdrawal from that outdated treaty.

There’s one more important recommendation from the Rumsfeld Commission that deserves mentioning. Even more important than better management of space, the panel says, “the critical need is national leadership to elevate space on the national security agenda.” That’s excellent advice. We trust the Defense Secretary-designate will listen to it.