Thanks, But No Thanks: Russia’s ‘Help’ On Kosovo Would Come At Too High A Price

Krauthammer Warns Against Making Russia ‘the Winner’

(Washington, D.C.): President Clinton’s desperation to secure a Russian deus ex
machina to end
his war in Kosovo ¹ has become palpable. The dispatch of
his long-time personal and clinically
Russophilic friend, Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott, to join the long line of would-be
Nobel Peace Prize winners courting Moscow ² would be
bad enough. Worse yet is the NATO
decision, first revealed on the front page of yesterday’s Washington Times, that the
Atlantic
Alliance is backing away from enforcing its announced oil embargo against Yugoslavia — at
least
with respect to Serbia’s largest remaining supplier, Russia.

Moscow Rules

In fact, according to the 27 April editions of the New York Times, Yugoslavia
domestically
produces only about one-third of its annual needs. Last year Russia supplied
some 40% of
Serbia’s total oil supplies. And, despite the fact that Belgrade is roughly $170 million in
arrears
on oil payments to Moscow, the Russian firm Lukoil — no doubt acting at the behest, or at least
with the assent, of Russian Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov —
recently extended new credit
lines to the rump Yugoslav state.

Apparently in response to a Russian threat communicated over the weekend by the Kremlin’s
new
Balkan envoy, Viktor Chernomyrdin, to the effect that any NATO use of force to interdict
Russian oil deliveries to Belgrade “could slip toward a third world war,” the chairman of
NATO’s Military Committee, German Gen. Klaus Naumann, renounced on Monday the
“force” option. In his inimitable fashion, President Clinton has chosen the path of least
resistance, choosing to finesse the problem in an hour-long telephone call he had on 25 April with
Russian President Boris Yeltsin. As National Security Advisor Samuel Berger put it: “[The
subject] didn’t come up….The Russians didn’t raise it, we certainly didn’t, so they
didn’t talk
about it.”

It is hard to imagine a NATO position more damaging to its members’ credibility in
prosecuting
the alliance’s air-campaign-only strategy against Belgrade. Even the leaders of allied countries
and the organization’s official spokesmen have made the point that it is untenable (not to say
absurd) for Brussels to be claiming credit for destroying some 70% of Yugoslavia’s oil refining
capacity and other energy-related infrastructure, yet continuing to allow life-support in the form
of oil supplies to continue to flow to the Yugoslav military.

Other Gaping Loopholes

The decision to allow Russia to continue to supply oil to Milosevic is not the only instance in
which the U.S. and its NATO allies are letting the Kremlin undermine the war effort. For
example, while there is ostensibly an international freeze on Serbian assets and a sanctions regime
with respect to financial flows to and from the country, there are glaring loopholes in both.
Similar to the absurdity of bombing refineries but allowing oil to flow through the Montenegrin
port of Bar, the three largest financial centers available to the Milosevic regime —
Russia,
Greece and Cyprus — are continuing, surreptitiously and otherwise, to sluice funds to the
Serbs, with the knowledge and, presumably, the covert approval of their respective
governments.

It seems a safe bet, moreover, that Serbian assets domiciled in Russian, Greek and Cypriot
bank
accounts are still available to Milosevic and Company. Indeed, according to an article that
appeared in the Boston Globe on 15 April, “U.S. and British officials say they also
have evidence
of money-laundering [to the benefit of Belgrade] in Greece and Cyprus.
But Washington was
reluctant to disclose details that would embarrass the Cypriot government when it was
engaged in a diplomatic effort to free U.S. soldiers.“ (Emphasis added).

(Interestingly, in late 1997, the NATO allies “allowed Serbia to obtain billions of dollars
through
the sale of private assets.” Among them was a joint venture deal concluded between Serbia and
the telecommunications companies of two NATO allies — Greece and Italy — which purchased
some 49% of Belgrade’s state telephone company for some $880 million. This cash windfall,
according to Mark Kirk, a Professional Staff Member for the House International Relations
Committee, went directly into Milosevic’s “war kitty.”)

Another vehicle for sabotaging the NATO campaign is the continuing Russian
natural gas
supplies to Yugoslavia. Russia’s Interfax news agency on 29 March confirmed that
“Gazprom
has not curtailed its gas supplies to Yugoslavia.” Those familiar with the energy profile
of the
region appreciate that natural gas is a crucial part of the energy mix in the Balkans, as it is
elsewhere in Europe. Accordingly, its continued availability to Belgrade is indispensable to
sustaining the kind of military offensive Milosevic is currently waging.

The Bottom Line

In the attached column which appears in today’s
Washington Post, syndicated columnist Charles
Krauthammer eloquently declares that “However this war ends, one thing is certain: The winner
will be Russia.”

Even if the Clinton Administration and its NATO allies do not make the terrible mistake of
allowing — indeed, paying — the Primakov Kremlin to sell us out in Serbia, it would
be a travesty
if they were to permit Moscow to continue to subvert the increasingly expensive allied military
operation there. As the Administration proceeds to call up some 33,000 reservists, all
Russian
oil and gas deliveries to Yugoslavia should be brought to an abrupt halt, via military
means,
if necessary. In addition, all financial transfers benefitting Belgrade from its funding hubs in
Russia, Cyprus, and Greece need to be interrupted forthwith.

The message to Chernomyrdin and his patron, Yevgeny Primakov, must be loud and
clear:
Russian oil and gas deliveries to Belgrade could facilitate the death of American and other
NATO soldiers almost as effectively as weapons-related deliveries. The continuation of
such supplies will not be tolerated.

¹ See the Center’s Decision Brief entitled
Russia Ex Machina (No. 99-D
45, 20 April 1999).

² In addition to Talbott, this list includes: UN Secretary General
Kofi Annan and the foreign
ministers of Greece and Canada. For his part, Chernomyrdin is making his own forays with a trip
to Strasbourg to brief his plan before the pliant European Parliament.