The Lagrangian Codes

By William Safire
The New York Times, 22 March 1999

WASHINGTON — Though dead for nearly two centuries, Joseph Louis Lagrange, the
greatest
French mathematician, is about to make news in the developing Chinese espionage scandal.

A book frequently checked out of the library at Los Alamos National Laboratory is a seminal
1970’s work by David Pierre entitled “Mathematical Programming via Augmented Lagrangians:
an Introduction to Computer Programs.”

Reached in Montana, Dr. Pierre explained that Lagrange multipliers, weighted with algebraic
constraint equations, form composite functions.

That didn’t help, so I read off a question that investigators of China’s penetration of our
laboratories are now asking: “How can the Lagrangian codes be applied to the history of our
nuclear tests to develop, with supercomputers, three-dimensional modeling that obviates the need
for explosive tests?”

“You’d better check with a physicist,” said Dr. Pierre, a mathematician unconnected with
secrecy.
“They can model dynamic systems — like airplanes or missiles — based on Lagrangian functions. If
they have a big enough computer, and a good enough program — and the benchmarks of previous
tests — they can mathematically simulate what you’re after.”

In so checking, I was able to get an idea of the New Nuclear Espionage, a spy system
combining
open dual-use purchasing with clandestine collection, both protected by politico-diplomatic
enticements. This is a far cry from the simple stealing of specs for the Soviets by the Rosenbergs.

Thanks to the lax, sell-’em-anything decisions of the Clinton White House and Commerce
Department, China bought advanced computers or their key components. That gave them the “big
enough computer.”

Then China’s mathematicians and physicists were able to learn from their friendly associates in
the
U.S. what types of augmented Lagrangians were used in nuclear as well as missile programs, or
“codes.” That gave them the “good enough program.”

Then into the Lagrangian-coded supercomputers went the “benchmarks” — the experience of
our
tests as well as their own — to give them the information on which to base their simulations. Feed
the benchmarks into the codes on the supercomputer, and — presto! — the People’s Liberation
Army leaps a decade ahead in its the race to nuclear-weapon parity.

That’s my theory, based not on leaks but on common sense. When the thousand-page Cox
Committee investigative report is finally cleared by a nervous National Security Council; when the
C.I.A.’s belated jeremiad assesses the damage caused by the derelict guardians of our security;
when Senate and House intelligence committees issue reports, and when Piffiab conducts its usual
internal whitewash absolving the Clinton White House of creating a culture of permissiveness to
China’s political, trade and scientific penetrations — we’ll see if my theory holds heavy water.

In the meantime, we can expect the President to continue his familiar legal obfuscations,
where
“to the best of my knowledge” he says he cannot be “sure” of any espionage at all. National
political-security adviser Samuel Berger will tell different stories in public and in secret.

Secretary of Energy Bill Richardson will lock E-mail barn doors only after press pressure and
will
rely on misleading “lie detector” tests (that the spy Aldrich Ames showed lead to false security).

But little by little, the interrelated truth will out. Logic suggests that the theft of our W-88
MIRV’ed missile will be followed, as the night the day, by news of the loss of the secrets of our
W-87 or W-89, whatever warhead technology that may be.

A word about the much-maligned media. A column here remembering the C.I.A. mole Larry
Wu-tai Chin on Jan. 2, 1997, was a howl in the night, but shoe-leather reporting by Jeff Gerth in
The Times on May 15 and 17, 1998, of Lieut. Col. Liu Chaoying’s penetrations pushed the House
into appointing the bipartisan Cox committee.

Cox’s still-secret findings then energized the Reno-restrained F.B.I. and the moribund D.O.E.

Though The Washington Post is doing a fine job on local coverage, NBC’s “Meet the Press”
and
ABC’s “Nightline” — with The Times’s Gerth, James Risen and editor Stephen Engelberg in the
lead — have advanced this global story and help protect your safety. Vive Lagrange!