Iraqi Forces Make Final Push to Remove IS from Mosul
After a 100-day operation in Mosul, the Iraqi forces successfully pushed the Islamic State out of the eastern portion of the city. Iraqi forces immediately moved into position after the hundred days to recapture western Mosul and push the Islamic State (IS) out of the city for good.
Eastern and western Mosul are separated by the Tigris River. While the western portion is slightly smaller than the eastern portion, it contains the Old City and is much more densely populated. The old city is Mosul’s ancient western district and contains narrow alleyways that armored vehicles are unable to pass through, making the battle in western Mosul much more difficult.
Additionally, over the past two years IS has developed numerous defensive preparations including a network of underground passageways and tunnels that allow them to hide and fight among civilians, quickly disappear after hit-and-run operations, and track Iraqi forces movement in the city.
Thursday, February 23rd, the Iraqi forces, backed by the International Coalition, gained control of the Mosul airport and nearby al-Ghazlani military base on the southwestern outskirts of Mosul. The International Coalition represents the American-led intervention in Iraq that began in 2014. Over last three years various other European countries and Canada have joined the U.S. in its efforts at different times.
The Iraqi forces reported that they faced limited resistance from IS fighters once inside the airport compound. Iraq’s Counter-Terrorism Service, who specialize in urban warfare, headed to western Mosul and are expected to breach the densely populated urban center.
For the last several months, Shiite militias have been pushing from the northwest to cut off the main road leaving Mosul to block IS fighters from leaving the city. Additionally, the five bridges across the Tigris into the eastern portion of the city were destroyed by IS fighter earlier this year and now Iraqi forces surround the rest of the city leaving approximately 2,000 IS fighters trapped. These fighters will be forced to either fight to the death or surrender to the Iraqis, making this battle all the more difficult.
It is unclear who will govern Mosul after IS is removed. Mosul represents an ethnic and sectarian fault-line home to Sunni, Kurdish, Shabak, Christian, and Turkmen groups. These groups are often divided among themselves and will no doubt jockey for influence and power in the vacuum of IS’ departure.
Another concern for the Iraqi and U.S. governments is the impact of the conflict on the 750,000 civilians still living in western Mosul. Because Mosul is encircled on all sides, civilians are hindered from leaving the city. Even if they could leave Mosul, the destruction of property in the city is likely to ensure that they would be unable to return to their homes in the short-term.
These civilians will be forced to either remain in western Mosul or if they escape the fighting they will be forced to move to the already overpopulated and underfunded camps for internally displaced people. This poses a humanitarian concern for the Iraqi and U.S. governments.
Another factor in the displacement of civilians is the involvement of Shiite militias who are known for ethnic cleansing. The Shiite militias have strong ties to Tehran and an ulterior motive in their involvement in the fight against IS. In the past when cities have been taken back from IS, Shia have quickly swept in and began the systematic killing of Sunnis. These human right violations have had an impact on the displacement of Iraqis.
According to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, there are currently 3.1 million internally displaced people (IDPs) in Iraq and approximately 10 million Iraqis are in need of humanitarian assistance and with the fighting in Mosul, the number of IDPs is expected to rise considerably.
This poses a security concern as displaced IDPs contribute to instability in a region where ethnic and sectarian conflict is already wide spread. Neighboring countries like Jordan and Syria have virtually shut their borders to Iraqi.
A large displaced population serves as a de-stabilizing force in Iraq particularly because of the role of demographics in areas contested by multiple ethnic and sectarian groups. Additionally individuals in the IDP camps are vulnerable to targeting from insurgent groups for recruit.
IS seized Mosul in June of 2014 when they took control of large portions of northern and western Iraq. As Iraq’s second largest city, Mosul represents IS’s last urban stronghold in the country. The removal of IS from Mosul poses immense consequences for the future of their territorial advances in the Middle East.
U.S. Military command in Iraq believes that the Iraqi forces can retake both of the IS urban bastions within the next six months – these bastions are Mosul and the Syrian city of Raqqa.
It was at the Grand Mosque in Mosul that the IS leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, reestablished Islamic State as the new Caliphate in 2014. Because Mosul is the largest urban center held by IS, the recapturing of Mosul would represent a blow to IS that could possibly end their ambition for territorial rule of the Middle East and would cripple their efforts to expand.
While capturing Mosul could put an end to their present ability to hold and maintain territory, it would not keep IS militants from waging its insurgency – carrying our suicide bombings and other similar activities in the region.
