Iran Belligerent After U.S. Withdrawal From JCPOA

On Tuesday, June 5^th, Iranian activist and journalist Heshmat Alavi claimed via Twitter that Iran has removed all International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) cameras from its Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant in the city of Qom. The report remains unconfirmed, but was sourced from a Telegram account associated with the Iranian regime.

Also during the same day, the director of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization (AEOI), Ali Akhbar Salehi, announced the Iranian government’s plan to further develop infrastructure to build advanced centrifuges at its Natanz facility in Isfahan province. The announcement comes a day after leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s televised order to prepare for the collapse of the Iran nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) signed in 2015 during the Obama administration. The leader also promised to retaliate against anyone who fires at Iran.

Under the 2015 nuclear agreement, which was signed by members of the United Nations Security Council and the European Union, Iran’s Natanz facility was limited to 3.67 percent uranium enrichment to provide for medical and industrial needs. Iran’s nuclear facilities were additionally subjected to continuous inspections from the UN’s IAEA. Also under the agreement, Iran was required to remove more than half of its IR-1 centrifuges – some of which are used to enrich uranium – from its Natanz facility.

To comply with the JCPOA, Iran may only use the Fordow facility on stable isotope production for medical use. Uranium enrichment is supposed to occur only at the Natanz facility.

In January, Israeli intelligence agents acquired more than 100,000 files from a warehouse in Tehran that related to the Islamic Republic’s Nuclear Program. On April 30^th, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu presented some of these files in a televised speech delivered in English. The files were holdovers from Iran’s nuclear program, the AMAD Project, which ended in 2003. Netanyahu’s presentation received mixed reactions; the Trump administration welcomed the report, but European powers and Obama administration officials insisted Netanyahu revealed no new information.

Ultimately, on May 8^th, President Trump announced his decision to withdraw the United States from the JCPOA, although Europe has maintained its intent to honor the deal. The decision was based on many factors. The JCPOA did not address Iran’s support for militant Islamist groups in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria Yemen and the Palestinian territories. It also did not address Iran’s ballistic missile program. In the meantime, the U.S. will re-impose sanctions on foreign businesses and some of Iran’s crucial industries, such as the energy and financial industries.

The U.S. decision to withdraw from the deal has reverberated throughout the world. Although European officials have maintained their intent to uphold the JCPOA, European companies have had other plans. French automobile-maker Peugeot announced Monday, June 4^th, that it would halt its expansion and development in Iran unless it was able to get a waiver from U.S. sanctions. Other European and Asian companies will be forced to make similar decisions or risk losing the American market if they do not withdraw their businesses and investments from Iran, although many are seeking waivers.

U.S. allies in the Middle East, especially Israel and Saudi Arabia, were pleased with President Trump’s decision. Saudi Arabia has since declared its intent to pursue nuclear weapons if Iran accelerates its own nuclear program. The goal of the Trump administration is to pressure Iran into renegotiating the deal to include restrictions on Iran’s support for known terror groups and requirements for stricter inspections.

Over the past month since President Trump’s decision, Iran has remained defiant. Ayatollah Khamenei has resisted European attempts to toughen the deal and has vowed to continue enriching uranium if the EU halts investment and business in Iran. Iranian officials have repeatedly blamed the U.S. and Israel for causing disruption in the region.

Throughout this week, Netanyahu will meet with European leaders to lobby against the Iran deal. In preparation for his visit, he provided European officials with documents from the January operation that netted over 100,000 files. Among those revealed was proof that Iran had failed to reveal its nuclear development work, lied about it, and that the work had continued under the direction of political leadership. It was also revealed by German intelligence that Iran had attempted to acquire nuclear weapons technology in 2017, although Iran’s attempts were thwarted by German counterintelligence.

The first such meeting took place on Monday, June 4, in Berlin between Netanyahu and German Chancellor Angela Merkel. The two leaders agreed that Iran should not be permitted to develop nuclear weapons and should end its involvement in the Syrian conflict. Netanyahu denounced the deal as an opening to develop “unlimited” amounts of enriched uranium, while Merkel defended the deal as a guarantee of transparency in Iran’s nuclear program.

The following day, Tuesday, June 5, Netanyahu met with French President Emmanuel Macron. In the press conference, Netanyahu focused on curbing Iran’s aggressive tactics in the Middle East, while insisting the JCPOA would fall apart due to the economic pressure of U.S. sanctions.

Netanyahu’s next meeting occurred in Britain with Prime Minister Theresa May. Like the other leaders, May concurred that there were flaws in the JCPOA, but vowed to remain committed to the deal as long as Iran continues to meet its obligations.

Moving forward, it seems likely the deal will not remain intact once U.S. sanctions take hold and European and Asian businesses begin cutting ties with Iran. Tensions between the United States and Iran have intensified over President Trump’s decision to withdraw from the JCPOA as both sides have threatened military action if necessary. Once the new round of sanctions hit Iran, Ayatollah Khamenei may be left with no choice but to renegotiate a new deal that adequately addresses U.S. demands to curtail support to jihadist groups in the region.