Six ways the US can deter China from attacking Taiwan

China’s increased threats of “reunification” with Taiwan – which means military invasion – have increased. If Beijing takes Taiwan, they will destroy a prosperous, democratic nation and subject it to totalitarianism and use it as a base from which to launch further expansionism in the Western Pacific. Doing nothing would show the world that American defense guarantees are worthless. To avoid that, the U.S. must act now.

Increased Threats

A Chinese-language publication described the recent escalation that saw 148 aircraft belonging to the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) including 52 34 J-16 fighter jets and 12 H-6 bombers make runs at into the island’s airspace as “combat drills.”

Other aircraft including Y-8 anti-submarine aircraft and an early warning radar aircraft took part.

It ominously warned that the time when the PLAAF would fly over the island itself was not far off. The PLAAF faces strain at home over energy costs, soaring oil prices along with other logistical issues, such as the poor performance of Chinese jet engines that could limit the duration they can operate.

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) clearly is trying to bait Taiwan’s Republic of China Air Force into firing first against its repeated incursions into the island’s “Air Defense Identification Zone” (ADIZ). “Hold out baits to entice the enemy. Feign disorder, and crush him,” Sun-Tzu says in “The Art of War.”

Reports suggest the pressure is getting to the Taiwanese and that they were increasingly under pressure to engage in combat, according to its Defense Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng.

The PLA likely will strike Taiwan under the guise of a “routine” combat maneuver because it would catch the Taiwanese and their allies off-guard.

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) timed the incursions to coincide with the anniversary of the creation of the People’s Republic of China on Oct. 1, 1949. The CCP-linked “Global Times” warns that tensions are “unlikely to ease.” This also is a test of the Biden administration’s resolve following the Afghanistan catastrophe.

“That the island of Taiwan’s attempts to resist reunification by force cannot succeed, and no matter what weapons the Taiwan secessionists make or buy, they cannot change the fact that the PLA has overwhelming advantages in the Taiwan Straits and surrounding areas, analysts said, stressing that once the mainland decides to solve the Taiwan question by force, no weapon can deter the unshakable determination of 1.4 billion people to realize national reunification,” the “Global Times” said.

Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping heightened threats against Taiwan.

“The historical task of the complete reunification of the motherland must be achieved, and it will definitely be achieved!” Xi said on the anniversary of the 1911 revolution that toppled the Qing Dynasty. “The Chinese People’s Liberation Army has firm will, full confidence, and sufficient capabilities to thwart all external interference and separatist acts of ‘Taiwan independence’ and resolutely defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity. If the ‘Taiwan independence’ separatist forces dared to split Taiwan from China in any name and by any means, the People’s Army will resolutely crush it at all costs.”

PLA forces spent Taiwan’s national day, the anniversary of the 1911 revolution conducting landing exercises in Fujian province across the Taiwan Straits from Taiwan.

A news website tied to the PLA warned this week that it’s a matter of “when” the mainland forces will invade Taiwan, not if.

How to Deter China

Japan’s aircraft carrier’s deployment of F-35 stealth fighters worries China, which has a long memory about Japanese war crimes against the Chinese people during World War II. U.S. Marines conducted takeoff and landing exercises on the Izumo last week, marking the first landing of a fixed-wing aircraft aboard a Japanese carrier since World War II.

Last week, the aircraft carriers USS Ronald Reagan and USS Carl Vinson steamed off the coast of Okinawa with the Japanese “aircraft destroyer” Izumo and the British carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth.

That was a good start, but here is what the U.S. and its allies should do to adopt a policy of maximum deterrence against China:

1. Move sea and air assets closer to Taiwan to rapidly respond in the case of an invasion of the island by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).
2. U.S. and allied diplomats should send the message privately to Beijing that any military action against Taiwan will be met with force.
3. China must know that any use of nuclear weapons against Japan, Australia or any American ally will result in an unthinkable nuclear exchange; nuclear blackmail will not go unanswered.
4. Practice minelaying exercises in the Taiwan Strait and near the island along with rushing the delivery of sea mines and Tomahawks to the island. B-52s, B-1Bs and B-2s should carryout exercises practicing seeding the waters around Taiwan with mines to prevent the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLA[N]) from easily operating around the island. The latest generation of winged Quickstrike sea mines can be deployed by bombers from the air, from at least 40 miles away in relative safety.
5. The Biden administration should consider selling the proven Iron Dome system to Taiwan to defend against the inevitable missile barrage planned by the mainland.
6. Japan should consider remilitarizing the airstrip on its southernmost island of Yonaguni, located approximately 120 miles east of Taiwan, to provide a rapid reaction in case of hostilities.

The PLA will strike at a time of its choosing, not ours. We had best start taking Xi at his word and start treating it as if it’s July 1939.

Vigilance is the price of peace. Adolf Hitler invaded Poland because he thought he could get away with it, and Xi sees Joe Biden’s failure in Afghanistan as a sign the U.S. is not up to the task of defending Taiwan.

Time is running out. The U.S. and its allies must step up their deterrence efforts against China because there might not be a tomorrow.