Situation Report: Supreme Court leak risks Left-wing violence

Last night, Politico published an alleged draft copy of a Supreme Court majority decision, authored by Justice Samuel Alito, that would overrule the precedent of Roe v. Wade. Such a leak is almost unheard of; the last leak of a Supreme Court decision occurred in 1919. The leak is in fact a crime and represents lawless activity that undermines the fundamental tenets of the institution of the U.S. Supreme Court where collegiality among Justices and clerks has been the rule rather than the exception.

President Biden’s statement on the leak made no mention of its being criminal, and instead referenced using the Department of Justice and other federal resources to “prepare options” against the “continued attack” represented by State governments seeking to implement pro-life policies.

From a security standpoint, the leak creates a political incentive for violent action by left-wing militant groups such as Antifa, who use peaceful protests as smokescreens for “direct action” a term often used to denote potentially criminal activity. This is especially true in the interim period between the leak and the eventual release of the Supreme Court’s final decision, during which time there may be a perception that the result can be changed.

The group Shutdown D.C., a D.C.-based activist group with links to D.C. Antifa group All Out D.C., and best known for illegally targeting the home of Senator Josh Hawley, has already issued a call to action over the news.

There are three reasons to be concerned that potential violence may be a result of the leak.

Firstly, Antifa is highly motivated by social media outrage, and may use violence to draw attention to its cause while the public is attentive. The willingness by some mainstream political commentators and activists to engage in violent metaphors or ideation also creates the impression that antifa violence will receive political cover. There is also a risk that it may continue to normalize Antifa’s position that America’s political institutions are inherently fascist, as can be seen from video of protests outside the Supreme Court following the leak announcement, where protestors called Supreme Court justices “fascist scum.”

Secondly, Antifa has repeatedly used violence against Pro-life demonstrators and organizers. One example, an attack by Antifa militants dressed in black bloc who assaulted a pro-life activist in Portland Oregon in September of 2020. In January of this year, Antifa members in Chicago staged a rowdy counterprotest against the March for Life. Antifa attempts to conflate the debate over abortion with fascism, racism and what they define as “white supremacy.” In October 2021, Antifa members crashed a pro-Life prayer vigil in Denton, Texas with more profanity-laden activity, conflating pro-life political advocacy with racism, fascism and even Nazism.

Thirdly, as the country moves into the mid-term election season, Antifa is likely to already be gearing up to target political opposition and campaign events, as occurred over the May Day weekend in Portland, Oregon.

If the leaked draft is what the Supreme Court officially rules, the debate over abortion policy will return to the state level, increasing the temperature of already fierce political campaigns and creating an opportunity for Antifa to capitalize on political discontent.

The most dangerous course of action by militant left-wing extremists would be an attempt to directly change the composition of the Supreme Court through violence prior to a decision being announced. While such an act cannot be ruled out, it is unlikely given the high degree of security provided by the Supreme Court Police, and left-wing extremists’ typical preference for soft targets vulnerable to comparably low levels of violence.

A less dangerous but likely course of action would be an intensification of violence targeting unprotected pro-life demonstrators and organizers, and the potential targeting of outspoken pro-life political candidates.

Regardless, law enforcement at all levels should remain vigilant to the potential for violence among Antifa and other left-wing extremists surrounding any demonstrations, rallies or political activities associated with this issue.