Reaper drone takedown augurs ill for Crimea offensive

The Pentagon says that the takedown of the Reaper drone by Russian Su-27 pilots was “unsafe and unprofessional.” But the Pentagon has not explained what the drone was doing flying near Crimea, nor has it told the public about the unique capabilities of the MQ-9 Reaper.

The Russians say that the drone was in a prohibited area and that the Russians had notified everyone, including the United States, that the area was off-limits. As it turns out, the drone’s location was about 60 kilometers (37 miles) southwest of the Crimean port of Sevastopol, according to Russian reports.

The US says the Reaper drone was not armed. The drone has eight hardpoints and can carry a wide range of weapons. It also has an elaborate sensor suite.

The Russian ambassador, summoned to a meeting at the US State Department, said that the Reaper drone was moving provocatively toward Crimea. He also says that the drone’s transponder was turned off, rendering it difficult to track with radar.

Crimea is ultra-sensitive for the Russians, for strategic reasons because of Sevastopol port and because Moscow considers Crimea to have been part of Russia since the time of Catherine the Great (1762-1798).

The Russians know that Ukraine is planning a Spring offensive, for which it is reportedly marshaling some 40,000 troops. The target is almost certainly Crimea. The cat was let out of the bag by US Undersecretary of State Victoria Nuland, who made clear the US supports strikes on Crimea – a declaration that was celebrated by Ukrainian newspapers.

The US is likely behind the planning and organization of the anticipated Ukrainian offensive. Its purposes are to quickly overrun Crimea and to take pressure off the Ukrainian army in the Donbas area, which is now losing ground steadily to the Russian army, local forces and Wagner Group paramilitary forces.

The battle for Bakhmut is in its final days, and if Ukraine loses it will be both a strategic and major psychological defeat for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Washington is well aware of the dire situation in Ukraine and the threat facing Zelensky and his generals. While US officials keep telling the public and their NATO allies that Ukraine is winning the war, the truth is the reverse.

But Ukraine will have serious problems launching a new offensive, even if US officials (including Nuland) are pushing hard for it to happen.

The Ukrainian army has been taking heavy casualties. Last week, Dmytro Kotsiubailo, an officially recognized “Hero of Ukraine,” better known by his call sign, Da Vinci, was buried at Askold’s Grave, a historical park in Kiev.

He was laid to rest along with two soldiers, a father and son who perished with Kotsiubailo in Bakhmut. Zelensky attended the funeral along with Finland’s Prime Minister Sanna Marin, who is leading her country into NATO – ostensibly to protect Finland from Russia.

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