US ‘tiered’ response transitions to daily strikes in the Middle East

Since the Jan. 28 drone attack on Tower 22 in Jordan and the Nov. 19, 2023, seizure of the M/V Galaxy Leader in the Red Sea, a routinized normalcy of air and missile strikes by mainly U.S. forces has developed. Normalcy and routine can’t be found in Clausewitzian principles or Sun Tzu’s writings.

Normalcy and routine are the antithesis of “offense” and “momentum”—key elements of Clause-Tzuian tenets. “They hit us a bit, we hit them back a bit” isn’t a roadmap or strategy to a positive end state. There are multiple instruments of national power to leverage in the achievement of national objectives.

When an administration has no clearly stated objectives and declines to use the full spectrum of diplomatic, informational, military, economic, financial, intelligence, and law enforcement (DIMEFIL) instruments of national power, a morass of endless conflict develops with no rudder or purpose.

The Trump administration very sparingly, but effectively, used the “M” instrument after the other instruments didn’t achieve the desired effect. The Biden administration seems to default to the “M” instrument as a first resort and declines to use the other instruments. Iran and its benefactor China derive great gain from the Biden administration’s declining to use more decisive instruments of power that could achieve U.S. desired outcomes much faster.

More US Base Camps Come Under Attack

Normalcy and routine are deadly for deployed American forces. Iranian-backed elements are hitting new U.S. camps that have been made public. The Iranian proxy attack on Tower 22 was the first to bring to general public knowledge the constellation of base camps that the Biden team reopened after the Trump administration used these base camps to defeat ISIS, eliminate Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, and make a dramatic teaching point with Qasem Soleimani. Very recently, U.S. Forces have used drones to kill a senior commander of Kata’ib Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed militia accused of the attack on Tower 22 and other U.S. base camps.

There’s a basic question of causal analysis to ask when studying the Iranian attacks. Would the current dysfunctional government of Iran exist if Kata‘ib Hezbollah didn’t exist? The answer is yes. Would Kata’ib Hezbollah exist if the current dysfunctional government of Iran didn’t exist? The answer is probably not, or at least Kata’ib Hezbollah would be a whisper of what it is, deprived of most of its resources.

It’s intuitive that the causal issue is the dysfunctional government of Iran and its primary backer, China. If the Biden team stopped the flow of funds to Iran and used DI-EFIL effectively, the “M” instrument of power wouldn’t be needed.

The Biden team insists on funding Iran and hasn’t been clear on the duty status of the U.S. envoy for Iran, Robert Malley, who has lost his security clearance because of his alleged affinity for Iran. The State Department still lists Mr. Malley as the Iran envoy despite his unclear status. The inconsistent behavior of the Biden administration engenders little respect from and demonstrates no fear of consequences by Iran.

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