The Senkaku Islands: What’s coming?

When the People’s Republic of China (PRC) wants something that belongs to someone else, it is persistent and pushes to get what it wants. And it’s willing to use force if necessary. Japan knows the feeling when it comes to its Senkaku Islands at the southern end of the Ryukyu chain. They are closer to Shanghai than to Tokyo. The PRC claims the islands as its own – referring to them as the Diaoyu Islands.

Given the PRC’s increasingly violent behavior as it seeks to control Philippine maritime territory, it is worth taking stock of the Senkaku situation.

Swarming and ‘Osmosis’

China fully intends to take the Senkakus…when the time is right.  For the last 15 years the Chinese have been gradually expanding their naval presence, in terms of frequency, location, and numbers and types of ships and boats involved.

We’ve seen China Coast Guard, People’s Armed Forces Maritime Militia, ‘regular’ fishing boats, and other Chinese government agency ships, with the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN, or Chinese Navy) lurking close by.  Even Chinese aircraft have intruded into Japanese airspace around the Senkakus.

It will be “more things in more places and more often” and more frequently in Japan’s territorial waters. In other words, within 12 miles of the Senkaku Islands. At some point Japan will find it simply doesn’t have the ships and resources to contain Chinese incursions.

China will have taken the Senkakus by “osmosis” rather than by storm.

Several times over the past decade the Chinese have “flooded the zone” with fishing boats. To include a couple hundred or more boats around the Senkakus ー backed up by China Coast Guard (CCG) ships. And with the PLAN over the horizon.

Beijing was demonstrating that whenever it wants it can assert “administrative control” over the Senkakus. And there is nothing the overmatched Japan Coast Guard can do about it. The treaty, and specifically US obligations to defend Japan, only applies to areas under Japanese “administrative control.”

One envisions a scenario whereby China makes a political decision and swarms the area with ships and boats. It puts people ashore on the Senkakus, and warns the Japanese to stand clear or “it’s war.”

China Treads Carefully

But Japan can defend itself better than can the Philippines.  It has a strong Coast Guard and navy, though Chinese ship numbers now outmatch the Japanese by far. And the numbers gap is expanding. Also, the newer China Coast Guard boats are as big as destroyers and built for fighting.  Japan Coast Guard ships are not.

But Japan can also use its foreign investment in China as a weapon. Cutting off Japanese investment, business activity and technology exports to China would harm the PRC.

The Philippines has no similar leverage.

Thus one understands the relatively less aggressive Chinese approach (for now) around the Senkakus. That is, compared to what it’s doing in Philippine waters ー even if the end objectives are the same.

The Chinese would like nothing more than for the Japanese to fire a shot – just one shot – at a Chinese boat. Then they could claim to be the aggrieved party and step up their presence and behave even more aggressively. That would include shooting at the Japanese and landing on the islands, saying, “we had no choice.”

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