3 key Pacific island nations under duress from China’s malign influence campaign

In the deterrence geography of the Western Pacific, the “Second Island Chain” is crucial for U.S. and Allied forces to stage, base, and generate capabilities to deter or defeat any Chinese overt invasion of Taiwan or seizure of Philippine territory.

This Second Island Chain starts at the southwest with the Republic of Palau, followed by the Federated States of Micronesia and the U.S. territories of Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands.

Communist China seems to be attempting a Clausewitzian “Double Envelopment” of this chain of islands by applying malign campaigns against each end. On top of the Second Island Chain, Chinese nationals have exploited a visa-free entry process, as identified by Pacific Islands expert Cleo Paskal.

Perhaps even more concerning is the Chinese end around the bottom of the Second Island Chain. Starting with Palau, the Chinese regime seems to be attempting a “three-fer” by actively destabilizing the internal governance of the country. Drawing a line from Palau, almost perpendicular to the Second Island Chain, China has continued, much like Japan in the World War II, and has now consolidated and isolated the Solomon Islands, and then where the Japanese weren’t able to seize in World War II, violent unrest has erupted in French New Caledonia.

Palau President Expresses Grave Concern, Seeks Help

Last month in Tokyo, Palau President Surangel Whipps Jr. told Reuters how the Chinese regime is destabilizing his country. Palau has remained steadfast in its recognition of Taiwan, which has drawn the ire of Chinese influence operations.

According to Mr. Whipps, the regime has broken into the networks of the Palau government and stolen 20,000 documents. He also said he expects that Beijing will focus on manipulating the national election that will be held later this year. Ambassador Nathaniel Fike is the cyber ambassador at the U.S. State Department and is the lead for rendering cyber support in such situations.

Palau is one of the smallest countries in the world. It has a population of only 18,000, smaller than that of the Pentagon in Arlington, Virginia. Palau’s small area is nestled in the southeast of the Philippines and just above the Indonesian archipelago. Palau has become a focus of the U.S. Pacific Deterrence Initiative with the construction of a powerful TACMOR (tactical mobile over-the-horizon radar), which can see deep into China. A local lawsuit was filed to challenge this radar last year. More recently, a larger U.S. presence was announced last month with the building of an air base and expanding of the U.S. naval base facilities.

Solomon Islands Teetering on Edge of Falling Behind Chinese Iron Curtain

The Solomon Islands has been experiencing a disturbing trend started under the previous administration of Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare, who had signed a pact with Bejing for “police training” in the wake of violent protests by citizens against his government for his closeness with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). The police training scenario was eerily similar to the Hong Kong strategy that Beijing exercised by sending heavily armed paramilitary police into Hong Kong, replacing the traditional Hong Kong Police forces.

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