China’s submarines can track (and sink) navy aircraft carriers

What You Need to Know: While China’s naval capabilities do not yet match the U.S., its ability to track American carriers, as seen in incidents near Japan in 2015, is a growing concern.

-In the past, Chinese submarines were noisy and easy to detect, but recent investments have modernized its fleet, potentially making it more capable of tracking U.S. vessels.

-Despite this, U.S. carriers are highly protected by multiple defensive layers, including advanced Virginia-class submarines and anti-submarine sensors. Even if a Chinese submarine were to shadow a carrier, executing an attack remains unlikely due to the carrier’s robust defensive architecture.

Chinese Subs Tracking U.S. Carriers: Growing Threat in the Pacific?

While China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy may not currently have a carrier fleet that can compete with the U.S., it has demonstrated the ability to track American carriers. Indeed, Beijing’s ability and its willingness to track the exact locations of U.S. naval carriers is concerning – these powerful warships are not invulnerable to certain sophisticated weapons.

A Chinese Sub Has Tracked a U.S. Aircraft Carrier Before

Back in 2015, a Chinese submarine closely tracked an American aircraft carrier near the coast of Japan. The Chinese Kilo-class fast attack sub shadowed USS Ronald Reagan for more than 12 hours in what was considered to be “more than a brief encounter,” according to officials.

Beijing claimed that the American vessel was sailing in Chinese waters. The incident was reminiscent of an encounter in 2006, when a Song-class submarine surfaced undetected within torpedo range of the Kitty Hawk carrier.

While more recent Chinese provocations over the South China Sea have involved fighter jets harassing American aircraft, Beijing has been further developing its submarine capabilities in order to track American ships more diligently.

In the past, Chinese submarines were considered to be a generation behind the U.S. in terms of specs and capabilities. They were quite loud, making them easier for U.S. warships to spot. But China has allocated a lot of resources and funds to modernizing its naval assets over the last decade, and its submarines could be far more capable now.

American Subs Remain Superior

Despite this growing threat, American submarines remain superior to their Chinese counterparts.

As explained by Forbes, “If the threat is from undersea warships, the carrier can rely on Virginia-class submarines that greatly outclass their Chinese counterparts, plus antisubmarine sensors and rotorcraft deployed on both destroyers and the carrier itself. The architecture of the defensive perimeter dictates that if an enemy penetrates one layer of protection, it will then face another, and another. So even if the adversary can find a carrier in the vastness of the Western Pacific, the likelihood its weapons will reach the carrier and do serious damage is not great. The likelihood the carrier could actually be sunk is minimal, given its design features.”

Essentially, even if a Chinese submarine is successful in tracking a U.S. carrier for a period of time, it would not necessarily be able to carry out an actual attack.

Maya Carlin, National Security Writer with The National Interest, is an analyst with the Center for Security Policy and a former Anna Sobol Levy Fellow at IDC Herzliya in Israel. She has by-lines in many publications, including The National Interest, Jerusalem Post, and Times of Israel. You can follow her on Twitter: @MayaCarlin.