America moves to strengthen its pacific defense perimeter — but that won’t be enough to deter China

Congress could summon the next secretary of state and the head of the Indo-Pacific Command and ask: What is political warfare?

Published: Nov. 11, 2024 10:33 AM ET

The United States Air Force, in an effort to defend against potential attacks from Communist China, is rebuilding old World War II airfields across the Pacific. What’s missing, though, is a strategy to roll back Beijing’s rising influence across the region.

This Agile Combat Employment plan intends to make it harder for China’s rocket force by complementing the handful of large American bases in Japan, South Korea, and Guam with smaller sites across the region.

It would also enable America to attack from a number of different directions — complicating things for the People’s Liberation Army. Other parts of America’s military are thinking along similar lines.

It’s good the American military is finally paying attention to the central Pacific region. Building military infrastructure and developing tactics for dispersed operations is essential.

However, the Chinese have studied World War II, understand geography, and have been insinuating themselves into the region for decades. Their plan is to use political warfare to block and preempt the Americans while laying the groundwork for — at the least — regional dominance.

Political warfare is “the employment of all the means at a nation’s command, short of war, to achieve its national objectives.” As George Kennan wrote in 1948, this includes financial, economic, diplomatic, alliance building, information operations, intelligence, and even the employment of military forces — without shooting.

While America has forgotten how to conduct — or even seemingly identify and defend against — political warfare, Communist China has taken it on and refined it, including using cyber, strategic corruption, drug trafficking, and organized crime.

The result is that, in much of the Pacific, the head of the local Chinese business association, fishing or timber company probably has more influence than the Commander of America’s Indo-Pacific Command.

What does that mean? If one expands the Pacific battle map to include Communist China’s operations, those new American airfields and bases look vulnerable.  Some examples:

Commonwealth of Northern Mariana Islands, U.S.A.:

The Air Force is rebuilding the strategic airfields on Tinian. During World War II, B-29s (including the Enola Gay) took off from Tinian to bomb Japan. A Chinese-linked casino has opened up right at Tinian’s harbor.

Chinese influence ensures the People’s Republic’s citizens can arrive in the Marianas without a visa — and some of them have illegally traveled to nearby Guam, where they’ve been found on American bases. There are also efforts to push for unlimited direct flights from China.

Federated States of Micronesia:

The Air Force is building a $400 million airfield in Yap state.  The Chinese are building one of their own elsewhere in Yap state.  Just for tourism, of course.

Palau:

America is increasing its military presence, to include a missile-defense radar on the tiny island of Angaur.  Properties near American military facilities, the main airport, and other strategic spots are being leased by citizens of the People’s Republic.

Solomon Islands:

In the country where so many Americans died at Guadalcanal, the Chinese have an agreement that can allow the deployment of Chinese forces to protect Chinese citizens and projects, and quell civil dissent. China plans to extend the nation’s main airfield, Henderson Field — crucial to Marine defense in 1942.  And just as important now.

Republic of Kiribati:

The People’s Republic of China is moving to refurbish a defunct World War II American airfield on Kanton, 1,900 miles from Hawaii.  Again, “just for tourism.”  America has a treaty that could prevent this.  What did Washington do? Along with Australia, America will fund a new wharf for Kanton.

Over the past 15 years, America has ignored opportunities to build bases or have expanded access throughout the region. The Chinese haven’t wasted that opening.

China has turned a region once overwhelmingly friendly towards America into a zone rife with pro-China constituencies — that sometimes have political control. Currently, there is no downside risk to taking Chinese money in the Pacific.

Agile Combat Employment is well and good.  As is the American military interest. The military part isn’t enough, though.Beijing’s political warfare campaign needs to be blocked and countered, and the American government needs its own political warfare campaign.

Congress could summon the next secretary of state and the head of the Indo-Pacific Command and ask: What is political warfare? What is your political warfare plan?  Show it to us.