A credible nuclear deterrent

9 September 1999

Hon. Trent Lott
Majority Leader
United States Senate
Washington, D.C. 20510

Dear Senator Lott:

We believe that the United States will require for the foreseeable future a credible nuclear deterrent. This requirement is one America uniquely faces in light of its need to provide extended deterrence — a need that has not disappeared with the end of the Cold War and that, if anything, may increase with the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.

For the U.S. deterrent to be credible, the Nation must retain an arsenal comprising modern, safe and reliable nuclear weapons, and the scientific and industrial base necessary to ensure the availability of such weapons over the long-term. In our professional judgment, the zero-yield Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty is incompatible with these requirements and, therefore, is inconsistent with America’s national security interests.

As you know, the United States has not conducted any nuclear tests since 1992. In the absence of such testing, the actual condition of our existing nuclear weapons stockpile has already become more uncertain than it was when the U.S. was testing these devices. To be sure, this uncertainty is informed by physical examinations, computer simulations and other analytical tools. In the past, however, these techniques have failed to detect serious problems; some were so severe as to have rendered the affected weapons incapable of performing their designated missions.

The Nation has found, time and again, that nuclear testing is necessary to identify these problems and to confirm the effectiveness of corrective measures. Denied the opportunity over the past seven years to perform this sort of testing, we may have undetected defects in the U.S. nuclear arsenal today. And as age changes the physical condition and interactions of weapons’ components and materials, the probability will increase that — without a renewal of periodic testing — such defects will increase in severity and number.

This prospect has been accelerated by the departure of large numbers of America’s top nuclear scientists and engineers from the Department of Energy’s nuclear weapons laboratories and industrial complex since 1992. Among these have been many with the greatest experience in the design, manufacture, testing, analysis and maintenance of the Nation’s deterrent stockpile.

The Clinton Administration maintains that various experimental devices and techniques being pursued as part of its Stockpile Stewardship Program (SSP) will be able to replace testing and equip a new generation of scientists with the expertise necessary to sustain the U.S. deterrent for the foreseeable future. There is no way to confirm that contention, however, until such an alternative capability has been created using nuclear tests to validate the sophisticated models and data derived from these new SSP assets and to establish that the training provided for the next generation of scientists is adequate to assure the safety, security and reliability of the stockpile. Ironically, this fact was explicitly recognized in the Hatfield-Exxon legislation of 1992 that led to the present moratorium — legislation that expressly contemplated additional underground tests would be necessary to prepare the U.S. stockpile, diagnostic tools and scientific cadre for a permanent ban on nuclear testing.

It is imprudent in the extreme, not to say reckless, to rely upon as-yet-unavailable and -undemonstrated technologies to preserve something as important as the credibility, safety and reliability of the U.S. nuclear deterrent.

We also have serious concerns about the unverifiability of a zero-yield CTBT and the virtual certainty that proliferation of nuclear weapons technology will not be significantly curtailed by this sort of arms control initiative. But the fact that the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty would preclude essential calibration testing for the Stockpile Stewardship Program should be sufficient grounds for rejection of this accord.

For these reasons among others, we consider the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty signed by President Clinton in 1996 to be inconsistent with vital U.S. national interests. We believe the Senate must reject the permanent ban on testing that this Treaty would impose so long as the Nation depends upon nuclear deterrence to safeguard its security.

Hon. Richard V. Allen
former National Security Advisor

Dr. Kathleen Bailey
former Assistant Director of the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency

Hon. Robert B. Barker
former Assistant to the Secretary of Defense for Atomic Energy

Hon. William P. Clark
former National Security Advisor

Dr. Angelo Codevilla
former Professional Staff, Senate Select Committee on Intelligence

Hon. Henry F. Cooper, Jr.
former Director of the Ballistic Missile Defense Organization

Gen. Raymond G. Davis, USMC (Ret.)
former Vice Commandant, USMC

Midge Decter
former President, Committee for the Free World

Hon. Kenneth deGraffenreid
former Senior Director of Intelligence Programs, National Security Council

Diana Denman
former Co-Chair, U.S. Peace Corps Advisory Council

Hon. Donald Devine
former Director, U.S. Office of Personnel Management

Hon. Paula J. Dobriansky
former Director of European and Soviet Affairs, National Security Council

Elaine Donnelly
former Commissioner, Presidential Commission on the Assignment of Women in the Armed Services

Gen. Russell E. Dougherty, USAF (Ret.)
former Commander, Strategic Air Command

Maj. Gen. Vincent E. Falter, USA (Ret.)
former Deputy to the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Atomic Energy

Douglas J. Feith, Esq.
former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense

Frank J. Gaffney, Jr.
former Acting Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Policy

Hon. William R. Graham
former Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy and Science Advisor to President Reagan

Charles A. Hamilton
former Deputy Director, Strategic Trade Policy, U.S. Department of Defense

Amoretta Hoeber
former Deputy Undersecretary of the Army

Vice Adm. William Houser, USN (Ret.)
former Deputy Chief of Naval Operations for Aviation

Lt. Gen. James H. Johnson USA (Ret.)
former Commanding General, 1^st U.S. Army

Amb. Robert G. Joseph
former U.S. Representative to the Standing and Bilateral Consultative Commissions

Lt. Gen. Thomas Kelly, USA (Ret.)
former Director for Operations, Joint Chiefs of Staff

Hon. Jeane J. Kirkpatrick
former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations

BGen. Albion W. Knight, Jr., USA (Ret.)
former Director, Research and Development, Atomic Energy Commission Division on Military Applications

Hon. Sven F. Kraemer
former Director of Arms Control, National Security Council

Gen. Frederick J. Kroesen, USA (Ret.)
former Commander-in-Chief, U.S. Army, Europe

Gen. John M. ‘Mike’ Loh, USAF (Ret.)
former Commander of Air Combat Command

Taffy Gould McCallum
columnist and free-lance writer

Adm. Wesley McDonald, USN (Ret.)
former Supreme Allied Commander, Atlantic

Lt. Gen. Sinclair L. Melner, USA (Ret.)

Hon. Edwin Meese III
former Attorney General & Counselor to President Reagan

Hon. J. William Middendorf II
former Secretary of the Navy

Vice Adm. Jerry Miller, USN (Ret.)
Deputy Director, Joint Strategic Target Planning Staff

Lt. General Thomas H. Miller, USMC (Ret.)
former Deputy Chief of Staff for Aviation, Headquarters, U.S. Marine Corps

Norman Podhoretz
former editor, Commentary Magazine

Maj. Gen. J. Milnor Roberts, USA (Ret.)
former Chief of Army Reserve

Hon. Roger W. Robinson, Jr.
former Senior Director of International Economic Affairs, National Security Council

Hon. Edward L. Rowny
former Advisor to the President and Secretary of State for Arms Control

Hon. Gerald Soloman
former U.S. Representative from New York

Maj. Gen. John K. Singlaub, USA (Ret.)
former Chief of Staff, U.S. Forces Korea

Gen. Lawrence A. Skantze, USAF (Ret.)
former Vice Chief of Staff, U.S. Air Force

Leon Sloss
former Assistant Director of the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency

Gen. Donn A. Starry, USA (Ret.)
former Commander-in-Chief, Army Readiness Command

Michelle Van Cleave
former Associate Director, Office of Science and Technology

Hon. Troy E. Wade II
former Assistant Secretary of Energy for Defense Programs

Gen. Louis C. Wagner, Jr., USA (Ret.)
former Commanding General, Army Materiel Command

Hon. Malcolm Wallop
former U.S. Senator from Wyoming

Gen. Joseph J. Went, USMC (Ret.)
former Assistant Commandant

Gen. Louis H. Wilson, USMC (Ret.)
former Commandant, U.S. Marine Corps

Amb. Curtin Winsor, Jr.
former U.S. Ambassador to Costa Rica