Al-Baghdadi Killed In Airstrike?

Rumors continue to circulate about the health of Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, believed to have been hit in a US airstrike conducted last month. According to a report from the Guardian, Al-Baghdadi was traveling in a three car convoy traveling between the villages of Umm al-Rous and al-Qaraan. US officials deny that al-Baghdadi was known to be in the convoy, believing it to be transporting low level Islamic State leaders. Three Islamic State terrorists were killed in the airstrike. Contradictory reports circulate whether al-Baghdadi was killed, crippled, or only sustained minor injuries.

Iraqi official Hisham al-Hashimi notified the Guardian that al-Baghdadi was wounded in the attack, but American officials were unable to confirm the report, stating that there was no evidence that he was wounded in the attack. Al-Baghdadi had previously been rumored to have been killed in an airstrike back in November, and both al-Baghdadi’s deputy and head of military operations were killed in December. However, it is known that al-Baghdadi spends much time in al-Baaj, just outside of Umm al-Rous, due to its remoteness to American forces. Al-Baaj is a tribal Sunni area near the Syrian border that has remained outside of government control even during Baathist times, and serves as a safe haven for jihadists.

Islamic State official reports claim that al-Baghdadi is still alive and well, and is still commanding Islamic State forces from Anbar province. If not just propaganda, then it would fly in the face of previous reports from the Guardian that al-Baghdadi was severely injured. If al-Baghdadi was injured, then the most likely candidate for a temporary replacement would be a former physics teacher from Mosul, Abu Alaa Afri. Little is known about Afri at this point, but it is known that he was a follower of al-Qaeda affiliated cleric Abu Musaab al-Suri and was a prolific writer of religious treatises. Afri was allegedly also the leading candidate for the leadership of Al-Qaeda in Iraq after the former heads were killed in 2010, and was the main liaison between al-Baghdadi and the emirs of Islamic State. Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is viewed as the legitimate Caliph in the eyes of Islamic State, Boko Haram, and several other groups. If necessary, a smooth succession is likely and would be another boon for Islamic State and their further expansion. There is a set succession doctrine. If executed well, it will project legitimacy for the group in the eyes of other Sunni radicals.