Andrei Illarionov: Trump truly believes he must strike a deal with the Kremlin, but two scenarios could unfold

Andrei Illarionov February 10, 2025
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Editor’s note: This interview, published by Delfi News, features CSP Senior Analyst Andrei Illarionov.

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“It is not normal for Ukraine’s former minister Kuleba to know less about what is happening in Ukraine than Hans H. Luik, the owner of Delfi Media,” says Andrei Illarionov, former economic advisor to Putin, in an interview with Delfi.

Russian economist and former economic advisor to President Vladimir Putin, Andrei Illarionov, has been a vocal critic of Putin’s administration since 2005. After leaving Russia, Illarionov has worked with various think tanks and participated in political discussions. He has also publicly criticized former U.S. President Joe Biden and his policies. Currently, Illarionov is affiliated with the Center for Security Policy (CSP), serving as a senior analyst on Russian and European affairs. – Recently, your interviews often begin with you explaining to the interviewer why Trump is better than Obama or Biden. However, over the past week, Western, Ukrainian, and local media have published numerous stories speculating on the worst-case scenarios that could unfold during Trump’s four-year term. Let’s start with that: What do you think is the worst-case scenario for the Baltic states and Ukraine over the next four years?

Illarionov: I would say the worst-case scenario is what media outlets describe, depending on their perspective—not what Trump does, but what has been discussed throughout this time. And the question arises: To what extent does any of it align with reality? How can we know? By comparing what was said about Trump before and examining how many of those predictions, assessments, and descriptions actually came true. For instance, Putin—who’s agent, according to them, is Trump—did not conduct any military invasions during Trump’s previous term, not in Ukraine or anywhere else. Meanwhile, under the ’non-agents’ Obama and Biden, Putin acted towards neighboring and even distant countries, pardon the expression, like at a buffet where everything is free to take.
They also said the United States would leave NATO, that Trump didn’t support NATO, insulted U.S. allies, and so on. But let’s look at what happened to NATO during Trump’s four years. Under Obama’s eight-year presidency, NATO defense spending declined by $90 billion. During Trump’s term, NATO countries increased their defense spending by nearly $60 billion, and the United States itself increased its spending by another $50 billion. Under Biden—the ’anti-Trump’ and ’not Putin’s agent,’ who is supposedly Putin’s uncompromising adversary—the United States reduced its defense spending from 3.5% to 3.1% of GDP. It is unprecedented for the leading Western power to decrease defense spending while facing Europe’s largest war.

 

Read the rest of the interview HERE.

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