Another year of rough sailing for Northeast Asia and Japan

Washington, DC: 2024 was rough. 2025 won’t be any smoother.

How rough things get depends mostly on Xi Jinping.

He won’t be letting up, and he’s got a powerful military behind him—no matter the economic challenges facing the People’s Republic of China (PRC).

What does the PRC have PLANed?

Just focusing on Northeast Asia, Taiwan is in Xi’s crosshairs. He’s publicly said he wants it which means he’s staking his reputation on getting it.

Military pressure will continue against Taiwan. As well as subversion, espionage, and the opposition KMT controlled Legislative Yuan making life—and national defense—difficult for President Lai Ching-te and the DPP leadership.

WILL XI ATTACK TAIWAN IN 2025?

Only he knows, but don’t think he’s still a couple years from being ready.

Chinese bullying of the Philippines will increase—as the China Coast Guard, the People’s Liberation Army Navy, and Maritime Militia push to occupy more of Philippine maritime territory.

Meanwhile in South Korea, pro-North Korea and pro-China (and anti-American) leftists are aiming to establish a one-party state. This long-term goal seems within reach.

China encourages and supports this entropic warfare—tearing apart South Korea’s free society and eroding the ROK-US alliance.

The improved South Korea-Japan relations that President Yoon engineered are in trouble.

Japan is also on Xi’s menu.

The PRC will be stepping up operations around the Senkaku islands and elsewhere in the Nansei Shoto (Japan’s southern islands)—with an eye towards keeping Japan on the backfoot, or worse—when the time comes to hit Taiwan.

The Russians will be piling on around Japan too. Don’t expect Putin to become nice in 2025.

Kim Jong Un in North Korea is on a roll thanks to Beijing and Moscow—as Tokyo well knows.

Xi will play the pro-China elements in Japan’s ruling class, suggesting there’s a deal to be cut.

This passive aggressive behavior actually works. Plenty of Japanese leaders fall for it, not least Prime Minister Ishiba, and it distracts Japan from building a proper defense.

Beyond Northeast Asia, Chinese political warfare efforts throughout the Pacific Islands continue, and Beijing insinuates itself more deeply into nearly every nation and territory (even American ones) in the Pacific.

It all resembles Japan in the 1920s and 1930s—aiming to dominate and to drive the United States out of the Asia-Pacific region.

Xi is not going to ease off and will likely turn up the heat everywhere.

The only thing restraining Xi is the Americans and Donald Trump.

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