Brexit Question Polling Evenly as Vote Day Approaches

In light of an escalation in terror attacks targeting European cities and a financial crisis that deeply hurt the European Union (EU), the issue of whether Britain gives more to the EU than it receives has once again become a contested question. Consequently, UK citizens will head to the polls on Thursday to decide if they want to remain in the European Union.

The fact that this question has been put to a vote reveals the feeling of skepticism that many UK citizens feel toward the EU. But this feeling is not new: since it opted to join the EU in 1973, the UK has been hesitant to integrate with the Union, having opted out of both the monetary union (Eurozone) and the passport-free access zone (Schengen Zone). Likewise, the debate over whether to leave the EU is also not new: in 1975, just two years after joining the E.U, the U.K held a referendum over whether to leave the union; the referendum largely failed, with over two thirds of the British people having opted to stay.

Prime Minister David Cameron, a “Brexit” opponent, was not able to find uniform support for his position within the Conservative Party. In the “Remain” camp is approximately half of the Conservative party, the Liberal Democratic Party, and the Labor Party. Cameron and Remain voters base their opinions on one of two fronts: Britain is stronger in the EU and a stronger EU is good for international relations.

Nearly 45% of the UK’s trade comes from the EU. For this reason, “Remain supporters claim, leaving the EU would have a negative economic effect on Britain. Similarly they note that that London is a major banking capital which relies on  its close ties to the EU, seeing as bankers can freely move capital around much of Europe without tariffs. They warn that a Brexit could lead multinational banks to move their headquarters to other prominent European banking cities such as Paris or Stockholm, where they would not have to bear trade restrictions when moving capital around mainland Europe.

Meanwhile, proponents of Brexit, known as the “Leave” camp, claim that Britain could still negotiate trade deals with the EU while not being bound by its Customs Union, which dictates that all EU countries must have the same tariff for outside members; this would allow the UK to better negotiate trade deals with EU outsiders. This could allow them to pursue a free trade agreement with the United States, which “Leave” advocates claim to be a more beneficial trading partner than the rest of the continent. Similarly, they assert that London’s status as a financial hub comes from the strength of the British economy, not from its ease of access to mainland Europe.

On the second front, Remain supporters claim that Britain leaving the EU would weaken the Union and would set a dangerous precedent for stability, particularly if wealthier countries such as France also re-evaluate their relationship with the EU.  It is evident that an EU without Britian, its second largest economy would be substantially weakened. This would play directly into the hands of Russia, who would see a weaker EU as an opportunity to expand its sphere of influence. Specifically, opponents claim that former Eastern Bloc countries could seek greater economic integration with Russia if the EU were not as attractive of a trading partner. Proponents of Brexit, in contrast, claim that former Eastern Bloc countries would have other options besides Russia were there to be a weaker EU, including China, the US, and newly unrestricted Britain.

Proponents of Brexit point to the fact that the EU detracts from British sovereignty. The European Union currently has authority over a substantial elements of the British legal code. In fact, it is estimated that roughly two thirds of Britain’s laws are made or influenced by Brussels. This is particularly pernicious when considering the security risks that these laws create. Proponents claim that the European Union’s rigid Human Rights standards prevent Britain from dealing with threats as they see necessary. Specifically, opposition to EU migration policies has driven much of the Leave campaign, with Leave supports claiming the EU compromises Britain’s ability to adequately screen migrants, some of whom may pose a terror threat to the island.

According to an average of mainstream polls by The Economist, the two movements are nearly tied, with 44% wanting to remain, 43% wanting to leave and 11% unsure.