Can Iran-backed militias in Iraq still kill with impunity?

In May 2021, Ihab al Wazni became the latest victim of Iran’s systematic political killings. Wazni, a vocal opponent of Tehran and its malign influence in Iraqi affairs, was allegedly murdered by Qasim Muslih. Surprisingly, Muslih has not been released from custody yet. In the past, arrested members of the PMF have been instantly released, perpetuating the notion that Iranian-backed militants can commit crimes and murders without impunity. In June 2020, over a dozen PMF militia members who were responsible for a series of rocket attacks targeting U.S. assets in Baghdad were arrested. One day later, militants suspected of being members of Iranian militias threatened multiple government buildings across Iraq carrying arms, and within hours the arrested militiamen were released.

Clearly, the arrest and subsequent holding of Muslih is a pivot from previous Iraqi policy. The rationale driving Kadhimi’s decisionmaking is likely influenced by foreign actors and domestic strife. In the latest round of U.S.-Iraqi discussions on April 7, the U.S. committed to a full troop withdrawal from Iraq without proposing a clear timetable. Iranian militias are vehemently opposed to any American troop presence in Iraq and carry out consistent rocket and drone attacks targeting U.S. military and diplomatic sites in Baghdad’s Green Zone on a near regular basis. By prioritizing Iraq’s sovereignty above all else, Kadhimi has been balancing Iraq’s relationships with both the U.S. and Iran. If the prime minister shows the United States he will not let Iran function freely in Iraq without any impunity, perhaps the U.S. will be more willing to present clear dates associated with a troop pull-out.  At the same time, the magnitude and frequency of attacks carried out by Iranian-backed militias could be dissuaded if the practice of impunity is squashed.