Can the African Union’s mission against Al-Shabaab succeed in time?

On March 2^nd Kenyan Defense Forces (KDF) operating in Somalia conducted a raid against Al-Shabaab terrorists in the town of Afmadow, 60 miles from the port-city of Kismayo. The KDF raid resulted in the death of 57 Al-Shabaab terrorists, unknown number of wounded, and destruction of 5 technicals (gun-mounted pick-up trucks).

The KDF operation was part of the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), a coalition of 8 African countries who are working under the mandate of the African Union to restore peace in Somalia. One of the tasks assigned to AMISOM is fighting Al-Shabaab terrorists and other rebel groups.

Although the raid in Afmadow succeeded in inflicting damage on Al-Shabaab the jihadists have struck back in the past. On July 26^th, 2016 the Islamic terrorists were able to bomb U.N. and A.U. facilities near Mogadishu airport. Besides the suicide bombers 13 guards from a private security firm were killed. The U.N. and A.U. suffered no casualties, but the attack highlights Al-Shabaab’s ability to strike at the peacekeeping forces.

The terrorist group is able to stage such attacks because it controls Jubba Valley, Hiraan and the northeastern coastline of Somalia. From these outposts Al-Shabaab is able to plan and launch suicide bombers and raids against the AMISOM forces.

To push them out AMISOM is planning a major offensive this year. This offensive is probably the last major AMISOM operation because its members are scheduled to start withdrawing troops staring in 2018 with the mission officially ending in 2020.

The planned withdraw might cause problems because AMISOM spokesperson Col Joseph Kibet said that they need 28,000 soldiers to take back areas under Al-Shabaab’s control and a maximum of 49,000 to fully secure all remaining areas. Currently the mission has 21,129 of its own troops being backed by 10,900 specially trained members of the Somalia National Army.

This may be enough to beat back Al-Shabaab, but not enough to actually hold those areas in the long term. Plus the Somali Army might not be able to back-up AMISOM because its members lack the necessary training and it requires foreign aid to keep itself supplied with weapons and equipment.

The lack of troops is not made any easier by withdraw of the 4,000 Non-AMISOM Ethiopian soldiers from Somalia citing “lack of support.” When the Ethiopian military left Al-Shabaab begin to move in and execute people it accused of collaborating with the Ethiopian government.

Meanwhile, Burundi (a member of AMISOM) is threatening to withdraw its 5,432 troops over the EU’s new payment mechanism. AMISOM is funded mostly by UN and EU, but the latter had to cut its aid because the cash was needed to mitigate other humanitarian emergencies.

So while AMISOM requires funding and a maximum of 49,000 soldiers, EU cuts its $200 million aid by 20% and the African Union can only offer additional 4,000 troops.

Despite the KDF raid in Afmadow if AMISOM does not receive a large infusion of new soldiers soon it could start to suffer setbacks. Since the mission started in 2007 the AU troops were able to take back major urban centers and install a government in Mogadishu.

Now as the AU withdraw is approaching the capability of the Somali Army to defend AMISOM gains and Mogadishu’s ability to restore order in liberated territories is under question. Neither the army nor the government were able to prevent Al-Shabaab from moving into areas once under Ethiopian control.

Once AMISOM is gone Al-Shabaab might exploit the weakness of the Somali Army and the chaos within the government in Mogadishu to retake the land it lost. An AMISOM withdraw before their gains are fully secured could allow Al-Shabaab to regain some of its lost power.