China and Taiwan: The ‘punch’ is coming sooner rather than later

Communist China always telegraphs its punches—even if you don’t quite know when they’re coming.

Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leader Xi Jinping told U.S. President Joe Biden last November in San Francisco that talking about Taiwan is well and good, but he won’t wait forever.

Before Taiwan’s election in January, Beijing warned that it was a choice between peace and prosperity or war and decline. So vote for the KMT. But most Taiwanese didn’t.

The People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA’s) Joint Sword-2024A exercises in May were intended to “punish” Taiwan for the voters’ temerity in choosing their own destiny—and more are reportedly coming.

China’s defense minister was uncompromising at the recent Shangri-La Dialogue regarding Taiwan (and everything else). He wasn’t winging it.

Commentators offer a range of scenarios for what the punches might look like, including the Chinese regime blockading Taiwan, blustering, squeezing, and isolating until Taiwan folds, seizing Taiwan’s off-shore islands, or an all-out kinetic assault to take all of Taiwan.

There are arguments for all of these.

But it’s prudent to plan for the worst.

What Did the PLA Demonstrate in Recent Drills?

The PLA is exercising all “muscle groups” and will do more with Joint Sword exercise phases B, C, and D, which are said to be planned.

The Chinese military is honing skills for joint/combined operations and practicing specific capabilities: rockets, naval, air, ground, logistics, cyber, electronic, intelligence collections, targeting, etc. The PLA is tightening operational (and psychological) pressure on Taiwan and gauging Taipei’s and, most importantly, Washington’s reactions.

The PLA is at a point where it can move from exercise to “the real thing” in relatively short order—if the political decision is made to do so.

These latest exercises seem to have come out of the blue, some have said with only 45 minutes’ notice.

Some imagine we’d probably get more than that for the real thing, but not necessarily the months of advance notice.

And the idea that we have a “grace period” of 10 years (as retired Adm. James Stavridis claimed a few months ago) before the PLA is ready to fight the United States—as could happen if the Chinese regime attacks Taiwan—is comforting but wishful thinking.

Read more.