Discussions of Broad ISIS- al-Qaeda Merger Overblown

Al- Qaida disavowed ISIS (formerly known as al-Qaida in Iraq or AQI) officially back in February 2014 after months of infighting due to ideological disagreements and a dwindling influence over ISIS leadership. Since the split between the organizations, the regional influence, recruitment, and military capabilities of ISIS have increased exponentially in a very small time frame. ISIS became a household name overnight and began to challenge al-Qaida’s long standing supremacy over the global jihadi movement, attracting a new and more radical youth generation to its ranks.

Sporadic clashes between ISIS and the Syrian al-Qaida group Jabhat al-Nusra have been occurring within Syria since the split but there’s some indication that this has changed. Recently, US intelligence and military officials have been closely monitoring the interactions between ISIS and al-Qaida groups within Syria and have noticed a change in posture. There is increasing concern that the formerly feuding groups are beginning to cooperate with one another as a result of the U.S. bombing campaign that began in September. For example, Jabhat al-Nusra (al-Qaida) fighters were just supported by ISIS militants in an effort that has effectively destroyed the U.S. backed SRF (Syrian Revolutionary Front).

So far the truces have been occurring sporadically in Syria and initiated only by local group leaders from both sides. The decreasing violence between ISIS and al-Qaida has been facilitated by calls to reconcile their differences and join forces to attack the West in response to the coalition airstrikes. Although this trend is concerning, there has been no indication that larger plans for any broad cooperation has been or is being discussed by the leadership of either organization.

The reluctance of ISIS and al-Qaida leadership to reconcile is important to note before jumping to any nightmare conclusions of the two groups merging back together. One of the reasons why an officially sanctioned merger between ISIS and al-Qaida is unlikely at this point is because the leaders of these organizations, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi (ISIS) and Ayman al-Zawahiri (al-Qaida) remain completely at odds with one another.

These two leaders are unlikely to ever agree to a merger because they would not be able to share a leadership role. One group would have to be absorbed into another yet both ISIS and al-Qaida have established a recognizable brand name and would not be willing to give that up. The major reason why an official merger is unlikely is due to the fact that Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi has declared himself caliph, leader of the newly established Islamic Caliphate. In his mind and in the minds of his followers, this makes him the leader of all Muslims around the world and requires them to pledge their allegiance to him, including Ayman al-Zawahiri.

Zawahiri nor other high-ranking al-Qaida leaders accept this declaration and would never subordinate themselves under Baghdadi who essentially used to be one of  Zawahiri’s employees. Zawahiri is a highly respected figure within global jihad and before the rise of ISIS and Baghdadi, he was the de facto leader of the movement. Approaching  Baghdadi for reconciliation would greatly damage his reputation and add to Baghdadi’s legitimacy. Baghdadi approaching Zawahiri for cooperation would make him seem weak and make his followers question his supremacy as the leader of the Muslim world.

Baghdadi also openly defied Zawahiri during the months of infighting that inevitably lead to ISIS being disavowed by al-Qaida. Baghdadi’s actions demonstrated tremendous disrespect to Zawahiri and al-Qaida leadership and will not likely be forgotten any time soon. The only circumstance in which it becomes possible for the two groups to join forces against the West would be if one of these leaders is killed. The death of Zawahiri anytime soon is a longshot since he is well hidden in the tribal regions of Pakistan. However, due to Baghdadi’s location and current popularity with the U.S. and coalition militaries, it is much more likely that he will be killed first.

The death of Baghdadi would give al-Qaida a chance reconcile and possibly re-establish control over ISIS as one of their regional players. Yet even in the event of Baghdadi’s death, it is still unlikely that the remaining ISIS leadership would agree to a merger. They have already established a brand name on their own and no longer need the al-Qaida stamp. ISIS already has its own established networks and funding, essentially limiting the benefits of re-joining al-Qaida.

No matter how the situation develops, I cannot see these groups sharing control in a merger. One group will have to be under the other and neither group would be willing to make that compromise. As long as Baghdadi still breathes, the cooperation between ISIS and al-Qaida will remain localized within certain areas of Syria only as a temporary agreement of convenience.