Elections in Colombia, The FARC and Obama’s Speech at West Point

The political direction of Colombia and the fate of many Colombians will be decided in run-off elections this coming Sunday, June 15^th. Who becomes president of Colombia matters because the man elected will determine whether or not to continue what some consider to be the misguided negotiations with the narco-guerilla group known as the FARC (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia). Colombian president, Jose Manuel Santos began negotiations with the FARC approximately eighteen months ago. His opponent, Oscar Ivan Zuluaga won in the first round of elections that took place in Colombia on May 25^th. Santos’ second place finish was not necessarily the result of economic failure nor was it about violations of civil rights or attacks on democracy.

Santos’ loss was most likely the result of his initiation and continued investment in his peace dialogue with the FARC.

The FARC is not only a guerrilla group. As time went by, the FARC turned into a dangerous and murderous group that killed thousands of innocent Colombians and kidnapped hundreds more. The FARC grew into one of the largest drug cartels, threatening the stability of Colombia and converting it into a lawless country.

The election results do not show an overwhelming victory for Zuluaga of the Democratic Centre (who is backed by former president Alvaro Uribe) who won 29.25 % of the vote. However, the results did indicate that Santos lost a large part of the political capital that he, ironically inherited from former president, Alvaro Uribe. Santos and his Social Party for National Unity received 25.69 % of the vote, 4% less than Zuluaga. Yet, for the run-off, Zuluaga received the endorsement of the Conservative Party (15.52%), whose leader is Maria Lucia Ramirez. Santos received the endorsement of the Union Patriotica , a party founded by the FARC that was illegal until last year , and ran in the Polo Democratico Alternativo ticket. These combined parties received 15.23% of the vote. However, Polo Democratico Alternativo, whose leader is Clara Lopez, refused to endorse any of the candidates for the run-off. Meanwhile, the Green Party, whose leader is Enrique Peñaloza received 8.3% of the votes and has not taken a position on the run-off. Yet, Mr. Penaloza, although leaning left, has praised the tenure of former President Uribe and has highlighted his achievements in restoring order to Colombia. On the other hand, he blasted Santos for using the negotiations with the FARC as a political electoral tool.

Voters in the Colombian election cast their ballots for the different parties and their respective platforms. This is a sign that Colombia is experiencing what every normal country in the world does. In other words, since the FARC was significantly diminished due to the policies of former President Uribe (with the help of Plan Colombia), Colombians may make their electoral choices without having to worry as much about the activities of the FARC. This is not to say that despite the normalization of Colombia that in certain regions of the country, fear of the FARC is still very much present.

Yet, we cannot ignore the fact that Santos, whose party inherited a lot of political capital from the Uribe years, was weakened by the emergence of the Democratic Centre, an alternative political party that calls for the restoration of Uribe’s policies and objects to the current negotiations with the FARC. Furthermore, current polls indicate that Zuluaga would defeat Santos in the June 15th run-off by 45% to 35%.

Colombia managed to reinstate law and order thanks to the assertiveness of President Uribe (2002-2010) and the Colombian people who were willing to be taxed for that purpose.

Thus, the government made tremendous progress in weakening the FARC that lost a big part of the territory it controlled as well as losing a number of their strongest leaders.

Approximately eighteen months ago, Santos began a dialogue with the FARC in Havana with the sponsorship of Cuba, Venezuela, and Piñera’s Chile (the latter served to give a façade). Cuba and Venezuela have maintained a strong relation with the FARC and even supported it.

Since Cuba and Venezuela looked like the future of the region and the main agents of regional dynamics a chain of left-leaning governments began to dominate the scene. Likewise, regional integration sounded very tempting to every country in Latin America, left and non-left.

It was in this context that Santos began negotiations with the much feared and despised FARC guerillas which was against the will of the people and the strong objections of his mentor, former President Uribe.

By the same token, the United States blessed the negotiations and openly supported Santos’s efforts.

In a recent foreign policy address to a graduating class at West Point, President Barack Obama delivered what is believed to be a sort of “Obama Doctrine”. In his speech he made the following points:

America’s support for democracy and human rights goes beyond idealism; it is a matter of national security. Democracies are our closest friends and are far less likely to go to war. Economies based on free and open markets perform better and become markets for our goods. Respect for human rights is an antidote to instability and the grievances that fuel violence and terror.

And in another part of his West Point speech the President pointed out,

For the foreseeable future, the most direct threat to America, at home and abroad, remains terrorism… I believe we must shift our counterterrorism strategy, drawing on the successes and  shortcomings of our experience in Iraq and Afghanistan, to more effectively partner with countries where terrorist networks seek a  foothold.

Precisely because Obama is correct, we ask why the U.S. is interested in going along with regional policies encouraged by tyrannies such as Cuba and Venezuela.

By the same token, isn’t the FARC an unrepentant terrorist group that continues its attacks as negotiations are taking place? Isn’t the FARC a merciless organization of drug traffickers, kidnappers, money launderers and criminals that has connections to other terrorist groups such as ETA, Hezbollah and Hamas (with Venezuela as the main convener of these groups)? Isn’t the FARC one of the largest drug cartels that the U.S. has spent money and energy combating in Colombia, itself, and now in Mexico? Whereas it is true that some former guerilla groups have given up terrorism and adapted to democratic politics (like the M-19 in Colombia, the Tupamaros in Uruguay), the FARC is far from showing a similar attitude.

The FARC remains involved in an array of criminal activities. At the end of May, FARC units carried out several attacks against Colombian military bases and civilian houses. Likewise, the FARC placed explosives in the townhall of Yondo in the Department of Antioquia and in other places in Colombia.

At present, the FARC, although weakened, has about 8,000fighters and controls about 20% of the Colombian territory and 60% of the country’s cocaine production with an estimated revenue of between 2 to 3 billion dollars.

The drug issue is one important item that is far from being resolved. Can Colombia afford a compromise that leads to less than the dissolution of the FARC as we know it?

In this regard, Santos and Uribe and perhaps, Zuluaga have two different perceptions of the FARC. Uribe used the power of the state to try to militarily defeat the FARC and reduced their numbers by half because he believed negotiating with terrorists would never lead to a lasting peace. Uribe wanted to destroy the FARC, not give them legitimacy. While the FARC has not changed its ways or given any indication that they are willing to co-exist as peaceful members of society, Santos seems to believe that it is better to bring them into the political process (which is what they want) rather than using the military to defeat them

For Colombians, the situation is not a hypothetical question. It is the reality they have faced and will face. Although Mr. Zuluaga does not say he will cease the current negotiations with the FARC, he has effectively broken the delusional views of Mr. Santos who still remains optimistic about the unremorseful FARC and will try to convince his people that negotiations with the FARC can succeed and that without an agreement, Colombians will never live in peace.