Ending the War in Ukraine Would Be Hard — but Not Unprecedented

One would think that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is the first time a war had to be brought to a close without one side crushing the other, occupying its capital, and dictating terms.

It’s always hard to end a war and to have to cut a deal with persons who attacked you and killed and cruelly treated your troops and citizens. It’s infuriating beyond imagination.

Sometimes, though, it’s the only alternative. Or the least bad one.

The chance of removing Russia from Crimea ended in 2014 and the chance of removing Russia from all of eastern Ukraine, short of introducing American forces — and maybe thermonuclear war — ended in 2022, in both cases directly after the Russian invasions when the United States did nothing much.

An opening to recover some lost territory came nine-months into the war when the Russians were briefly on the run. Team Biden didn’t help the Ukrainians take advantage — instead providing piecemeal assistance and only what Biden officials thought appropriate and non-escalatory.

Once the Russians caught their breath and dug in, that window shut. Resolving today’s bloody stalemate may be hard but it’s not unprecedented.

Korean War (1950-1953)

The president of what became known as South Korea, Syngman Rhee, opposed negotiations, tried to sabotage them, and refused to sign the armistice agreement. Rhee wanted UN forces (aka America) to reunify the peninsula by force. Yet the United States had had enough and wasn’t going to spend the blood to retake the entire peninsula while thrashing the Communist Chinese — who had started it all.  It took three years to reach an armistice.  And all the while American (and South Korean) troops were dying and its prisoners of war maltreated by communist captors.

The Vietnam War (1964-1975)

The communists started it and the final deal let them occupy parts of South Vietnam.  It took five years to negotiate a settlement — including a couple years arguing over the shape of the negotiating table. American POWs were being abused and troops dying while diplomats were talking.  President Nixon forced the South Vietnamese to sign the deal.  To lasting shame, the United States did not intervene when the North Vietnamese violated the agreement and launched an offensive in early 1975 — and conquered the South.

Rhodesian War (1964-1979)  

This is little remembered.  Britain brokered an agreement in late 1979 whereby the Rhodesian government cut a deal with guerrilla leader Robert Mugabe and ultimately gave him the country.  The Rhodesians had little choice. The free world was against them, and was backing Mugabe — both Marxist and brutal.  It took five years to come to a deal. Mugabe tormented and looted the country for the next 37 years.

President Zelensky ought to thank his lucky stars he might at least get most of what he started with — and an implicit promise of American military support is available via the “mineral agreement.”

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