Hagel, Weaker Support for Israel in the US set the Stage for Erdoğan Remarks

Today John Kerry, America’s new Secretary of State, is due to meet in Turkey with its Islamist Prime Minister– and Obama confidant– Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who made headlines earlier this week by comparing Zionism with fascism and Islamophobia as “crimes against humanity.”

I don’t think this statement by Erdogan was off the cuff; I’d bet it was calculated ahead of meeting Kerry. He’s testing (1) how weak the Israel lobby is now and (2) how his comments will/won’t change relations w the US.(And we know it won’t, it’s just a matter of the strength of the formal response and the time it takes to arrive.)

It’s pretty easy to see the failure of the pro-Israel forces in the US now,as the Obama cult of personality and his party’s leftward drift forced Jewish Democrats to have to embrace Chuck Hagel. Hagel’s past (his off–the–cuff comments about the “Jewish Lobby,” partnership and support with a whole raft of opponents of the US/Israel relationship, his voting record, etc.) would’ve been enough to derail a potential appointment at any time in the last 20 years of American political life. Obama’s nomination of Hagel signals a deliberate change in the discourse on Israel issues in the United States, and a mainstreaming of what were once fringe attitudes and positions.

Of course, they did this without the slightest of public qualms. I think Erdogan– who’s as sharp as he’s odious– senses what’s happened: that any meaningful pro-Israel voices will now only come from the GOP (whose leadership is both neutered and feckless in the Senate), because the Jewish Democrats march in lockstep with their leader.

For people like Sens. Feinstein and Schumer, Obama’s brand is strong enough to make serious havoc with a certain segment of low-info voters. For this crowd, the Obama brand beats the Israel brand hands down– and nearly as far as he cares to take it. Look at how pro-Israel sentiment plummeted just after Hagel in question 25 of this poll.He picks several more of these fights and Feinstein and Schumer don’t even have to pretend anymore; their base has shifted.

Unfortunately for supporters of a strong Israel-US relationship, both supporters of Israel in politics and the media grossly underestimated the power of Obama’s hand. If I was Erdogan, I could do worse than test the waters in US politics here.