How Poland Just Lost to Russia in a Massive Wargame (And What It Means)

Poland’s Ministry of Defense sought to see how its forces, including the yet-to-be-delivered F-35, Patriot air-defense system, and M142 HIMARS mobile rocket artillery systems, would fare in the event of an all-out Russian invasion with this exercise. Several thousand Polish military officers participated; the scale was unprecedented in the history of post-Cold War Poland.

The wargame serves as a reminder that NATO’s Eastern flank is weak and vulnerable to Russian aggression.

Russia has reinforced and modernized its Western Military District in recent years. A 2020 report to Congress noted that Russia’s Western Military District contains some of its most competent units. They include modern T-90 tanks, T-72B3M tanks, BTR-82 armored personnel carriers, BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicles along with sophisticated anti-air defenses, such as the Tanguska, Pantsir S, and S-400. They would presently easily overwhelm Polish and Baltic NATO units unless the United States and other allies beef up their troop commitments.

In addition to Russia’s military buildup on its own territory, it has worked with neighboring Belarus to enhance its capability of denying access to NATO aircraft both over its territory and in Poland with S-400 batteries.