IS and the Attack in Kabul

The Islamic State (IS) has claimed responsibility for the July 31st attack on the Iraqi embassy in Afghanistan’s capital, Kabul. The attack initiated with an explosion outside the embassy gates by a suicide bomber followed by gunmen entering the compound and engaging in a four hour battle with Afghan security forces. Authorities say that the fighting ceased once all assailants had been killed though some reports claim gunfire continued long after Afghan forces declared the scene secure.

While the attack was still ongoing, IS declared responsibility via its Amaq News Agency. The casualty count remains unclear at this time though Afghan authorities say there are no fatalities among police officers and embassy staff. IS, however, claims that 27 people have been killed, including seven policemen. The building itself suffered significant damage.

The Iraqi Embassy is located outside what is known as the Green Zone, which is heavily guarded and home to many foreign embassies. With the recent victory in Mosul and its lack of security, the Iraqi Embassy reportedly did express concern over possible retaliation from IS.

The attack comes in light of IS’s loosening grip on its territories in the Middle East, specifically with the fall of Mosul and increasing pressure on Raqqa.

In Mosul, IS’s prospects are bleak. Since the group gained control over Mosul in 2014, the city developed into one of its most central strongholds in Iraq. In October 2016, the Iraqi forces launched an offensive to take back the city and after almost ten months of intensive fighting, their mission proved successful. Earlier this month, Haider al-Abadi, the Iraqi Prime Minister, announced the collapse of IS in Mosul and deemed the nine month long battle against the terrorist group for the city a success, though this success is not without its casualties. Over 900,000 people have been displaced and thousands killed. According to the UN, repairing the damage inflicted on Mosul will cost over $1 billion.

This pattern of long-term fighting and desolation is also seen in Raqqa, IS’s de facto capital in Syria. The city is currently home to over 2,000 IS fighters though their hold on the city is diminishing. Since the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) launched their offensive to take back the city in June, they claim to have captured 40% of the city. Additionally, U.S. Deputy Commander Dirk Smith states that there have not been any “significant counterattacks” from IS.

As IS continues to lose its foothold in Iraq and Syria, it will look to expand its influence and presence elsewhere. While Afghanistan’s history with ties to terrorism points to IS growth in the country, in all likelihood this will not be the case. Since IS’s arrival in Afghanistan, reportedly as early as 2014, its success in the country has significantly faltered due to backlash from the Taliban as well as Afghan and international forces.

U.S. forces in Afghanistan say they are determined to halt IS spread as illustrated with their dropping of a Massive Ordinance Air Blast Bomb (MOAB) on IS cells in April, killing  at least 90 IS fighters. The Pentagon believes that there are less than 1,000 IS fighters still remaining in the country. Earlier this month, a U.S. drone strike killed Abu Sayed, the leader of IS in Afghanistan. General John Nicholson states that U.S. forces will “be relentless” in their pursuit against IS and asserts that “there are no safe havens in Afghanistan” for the group.

Since IS’s 2014 declaration of a caliphate over Iraq and Syria, it has lost over 60% of its territories and 80% of its monetary sustenance. Faced with looming defeat and mounting resistance, IS’s July 31st attack in Kabul serves as both a distraction from the group’s failures but also as a sign of its persistent strength in the region.

The July 31st siege on Iraq’s Embassy in Kabul is intended to communicate that, despite IS’s shortcomings in the Middle East, it has proven itself capable of rallying and conducting attacks in other areas, Kabul being no exception.

As IS continues to be backed into a corner, its next move is unclear; however, it is unlikely that the group will relent or disband, and reasonable to assume that it will attempt to shift its focus to other areas where it can begin to reestablish a foothold. However, where IS chooses to establish this foothold is equally unclear.

Some foreign fighters may try to return to Europe and conduct solo attacks. Others may seek out Libya, Afghanistan, or other regions with an IS presence. If IS were to relocate to Afghanistan, it would face many obstacles, as mentioned above, though this has never stopped the group before.

During this year alone, IS has reportedly conducted 280 attacks resulting in at least 2,019 causalities illustrating that we have not seen the last of the Islamic State.