ISIS Stays on the Offensive

An important part of the strategy of Islamic State (ISIS) is staying on the offensive.

On May 18, the Kurdish peshmerga forces in Erbil arrested six members of a terrorist cell affiliated with ISIS. All six members confessed to being Kurdish, but having been  indoctrinated in local mosques. When they were arrested, Kurdish authorities believe they were planning attacks in Erbil and eighteen explosive devices were seized. The Kurdish Regional Government has tweeted out an image of peshmerga forces preparing for a nighttime assault from ISIS.

On May 18, a suicide bombing by a German national affiliated with ISIS was carried out in Baiji against Iraqi forces. Baiji contains an important oil refinery that has been the focus of much of the fighting between ISIS  and Iraqi security forces for the past eleven months.

On May 17, ISIS forces took over Ramadi, which was the command center for the Iraqi military in the Anbar province. Both the United States and Iraq have stated that this is a large obstacle in their current campaign to rid the province of the terrorist organization, and it has forced them to turn to Shia rebel groups for help in retaking the city.

Like any other terrorist organization, ISIS thrives on progress for two important reasons: it leads to continued backing from its supporters and the demoralization of its opponents. If ISIS did not appear to be continually moving forward with its plans to establish the caliphate, as shown by the Baiji bombing, the takeover of Ramadi, and its infiltration among the mosques of the Sunni, but relatively secular Kurds, (a population continually attacked by ISIS), it would begin to lose the support.  Further evidence of this is demonstrated by the establishment by ISIS of provinces in a clear expansion, such as those in Libya, Mali, and Nigeria with Boko Haram.  Those dying for the Islamic State want to know that their deaths support the reestablishment of the Caliphate. The organization must continue to escalate its violence to fulfill this mandate.

ISIS also relies on progress to undermine the will of its opponents to fight back. Repeated attacks on civilians serve a dual purpose: first, to kill non-believers; second, to send a message to everyone else that the same fate awaits them. By killing them, infiltrating into their societies, and by committing constant assaults on civilian populations, evidenced by the recent arrests, they can undermine the population’s confidence in their leaders ability to defend them. The use of suicide bombers, especially the use of foreign fighters, only serves to help ISIS. The presence of someone with no obvious stake in the conflict who is willing to die for it sends a message to the victimized people. Escalation of violence is needed to beat down a population so that they are not only unable to defend themselves but until they lack the nerve to do so.

The events of the past two days demonstrate that ISIS has the capability to operate on multiple fronts while still keeping all opponents on the defensive, a worrisome quality for those trying to combat the group. Despite the death this weekend of Abu Sayyaf, an important commander, at the hands of United States Special Forces, the organization shows no sign of weakening or relenting. Iraq has suffered staggering defeat on May 18 and while the Kurds are trying to be proactive in arresting Islamic State supporters in their territory, the ideology still permeates. The agility with which ISIS operates on multiple fronts must be contrasted with a struggling international coalition, led by the United States, which lacks a coherent agreed upon strategy. As a result, the international community should expect continued attacks perpetrated by Islamic State as they attempt to establish authority over new populations and successfully dictate the timing and tempo of the fight.