Japan’s 2025 Defense White Paper – Hoping for a Surprise

Japan’s 2025 Defense White Paper will soon be formally approved by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba‘s Cabinet.

It’s not quite fair to say that if you’ve seen one White Paper, you’ve seen them all. But one can pretty much anticipate what’s coming – while hoping for something noteworthy.

The White Papers accurately describe the military/political threats to Japan. And for some years now, the White Papers have explicitly declared the People’s Republic of China as the main problem.

Also, in recent years, the White Papers have expressed concern over Chinese and Russian military cooperation and activities ー in the region and around Japan.

Taiwan will get a mention as a potential flash point, threatening Japan’s and regional security. But there will be no specific mention of Japanese support to improve Taiwan’s defenses.

That’s left up to the United States ー although Japan’s aid to the Philippines (that will be mentioned in the White Paper) is intended to contribute to Taiwan’s defense.

When it comes to Taiwan, Tokyo is leaving the hard work up to the Americans. It would be nice if the White Paper says otherwise.

What To Do About It?

Although the White Papers competently lay out the threats facing Japan, they come up short on the ‘what to do about it’ front.

It’s not that they don’t try.

However, typically, White Papers call for buying some of this and some of that ー as if buying more and specific hardware will solve Japan’s defense problems and frighten off enemies.

There will be some more ships and more aircraft on order. Also, in recent years, its long-range missiles have been the big thing.  This is the so-called ‘counterstrike capability’ that is the panacea for Japan’s defense.

The White Paper needs to ー but probably won’t ー describe a comprehensive, coherent plan for Japan’s defense. That would include proper and adequate hardware, more personnel, better force organization, command and control, funding, war stocks, reserve force, logistics, casualty handling, ISR (intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance), etc. Those are all things that make the Japan Self Defense Force (JSDF) more, rather than less, of the sum of its parts.