No matter what pronunciamentos may come from Washington, the Russian government is expecting greater attacks on Russian territory – especially Moscow and maybe Russian ports – to try and destabilize the Putin government.
The Pentagon says that no US weapons will be used against Russian territory, but this is an outright lie. US drones and cruise missiles such as Himars plus cluster munitions supplied by the United States are used daily by Ukraine, targeting Russian territory.
So, too, is the British-French Storm Shadow (SCALP-EG). Both the British and French heavy precision cruise missiles are made by MBDA (a Consortium of French, British and Italian companies).
Nor can the US properly explain what a Global Hawk is doing spying on Russian territory, presumably to help Ukraine target Russian assets, both military and civilian.
The US openly admits that it planned and supplied Ukraine with the semi-submersible kamikaze drones used against the Kerch Strait bridge which connects Crimea to Russia, making it an attack on Russia.
Such operations are not lost on Moscow, which openly believes that it is at war with NATO led by the United States.
Thus, no matter what is said by the Pentagon or by Washington more broadly, the Biden administration is skirting close to the edge of a wider war in Europe.
The chance for a settlement of the war in Ukraine is not only elusive but increasingly irrelevant if Washington’s war aims are what they appear to be.
On August 5 and 6, Saudi Arabia is hosting a so-called peace conference on Ukraine. Some 30 nations will attend, apparently including Iran. But Russia was not invited. That suggests that the peace conference is a propaganda show, not serious.
Sooner or later, probably sooner, Russia either will decide that the war in Ukraine is a fruitless pursuit and give it up or it will decide to go after the war’s backers and suppliers.
If Russia walks away, the Russian government will fall. If Russia stays in it, the hard line nationalist faction will gain a big victory and demand that Russia expand the war. At that point, Putin will have to either reformulate his government to reflect the changes or decide not to stand for election in 2024.
If Putin steps down, there are a number of candidates to replace him from the security services and from the military. The most likely winners would come from the hard nationalist right, not from the enfeebled left.
- Europe makes missiles for Patriots as Israel retires them - May 9, 2024
- Israel’s attack on Iran: What we know so far - April 23, 2024
- Apply Israel-Iran lessons to Taiwan - April 18, 2024