MORE POTEMKIN REFORMS: SOVIETS WANT MFN NOW, IN EXCHANGE FOR RIGHT TO EMIGRATE IN 1993

(Washington, D.C.): In the latest
indication that Mikhail Gorbachev’s
regime is both desperate to obtain
additional Western financial assistance
and determined to minimize the extent to
which it must undertake fundamental
reforms to obtain it, the Supreme Soviet
yesterday acted on an emigration bill.

The good news for those who hope to
give Moscow permanent Most Favored Nation
(MFN) status is that the Soviet
legislature approved this legislation by
a vote of 320 to 37, with 32 abstentions.
Predictably, such proponents have seized
on this action to redouble their demands
that impediments to Soviet MFN status
arising from the 1974 Jackson-Vanik
amendment be promptly eliminated.

The bad news for such advocates of new
U.S. taxpayer exposure in the USSR is
that this latest gambit falls far
short of Jackson-Vanik’s actual
requirements. That amendment stipulates
that the U.S. government shall not
bestow most-favored nation status, extend
credits, credit guarantees, or investment
guarantees, or enter into any commercial
agreement with a “non-market economy
country” during the period in which
that country (1) “denies its
citizens the right or opportunity to
emigrate;” (2) imposes more than a
nominal tax on emigrations or on the
visas or other documents required for
emigration,” or (3) “imposes
more than a nominal tax, levy, fine, fee,
or other charge on any citizen as a
consequence of the desire of such
citizens to emigrate to the country of
his choice.”

First of all, the Soviet bill
passed yesterday was only approved in
principle. It may be
substantially reworked or amended before
it becomes law. Second, this bill
carries forward numerous limitations and
restrictions that have in the past served
as constraints on free emigration.
For example, those deemed to hold state
secrets are enjoined from leaving the
country for five years. This is something
of a Catch-22 insofar as all men of
conscription age are expected to serve in
the military and, therefore, will be
deemed to have been exposed to state
secrets. Third, and most importantly, implementation
of this bill has been postponed until
1993. In other words, even if it
had none of the aforementioned
shortcomings, it would still not meet the
Jackson-Vanik’s requirements until at
least 1993.

The Center for Security Policy urges
the Bush Administration not to fall for a
transparent Soviet effort to gain U.S.
concessions on the installment plan. The
history of Moscow’s backsliding on this
subject and of the Administration’s
willingness to move the goal posts in
order to improve Gorbachev’s field
position documented in a paper released
by the Center last December (excerpts of
which are attached) does not inspire
confidence on this point. The Center
believes now as it did then, however,
that President Bush must accept no
substitutes for genuine political and
economic reform in the USSR and an
unencumbered right to emigrate as the
price for further U.S. financial
concessions. href=”index.jsp?section=papers&code=91-P_39at1″> A related
op.ed. by A.M. Rosenthal in today’s New
York Times is attached.