NATO is retreating from the Red Sea

The Houthis, armed, trained, equipped, and financed by the Iranians, continue to fire missiles and launch drones at vessels in the Red Sea. They have effectively closed that critical waterway to commercial shipping. The Biden-Harris administration’s half-measures in response have had negligible effect. And, now, it appears our NATO allies are acknowledging this and retreating to safer waters.

Two German naval vessels, the frigate Baden-Württemberg and support vessel Frankfurt am Main are on their way home to Germany after a deployment to the Indo-Pacific. They were to transit the Red Sea. The German government has now directed them to sail all the way around the Cape of Good Hope on their return home. Too risky to send armed warships past the Houthi blockade you understand.

The decision is a tacit acknowledgment of the current situation. Not only have U.S. and NATO forces not stopped the Houthi attacks, but those attacks have escalated steadily and expanded to an even wider area.  The Biden-Harris administration has not increased the level of force used and has in fact steadily decreased the number of assets deployed to the area.

Meanwhile, Iran continues to rake in the cash from oil sales in violation of U.S. sanctions. That cash is used to finance the Iranian proxy war against the U.S. and its allies all across the Middle East. The Iranians can continue to arm the Houthis with drones and missiles indefinitely.

We are not so fortunate. Our strategy, to the extent there is one, has been to shoot down cheap Iranian missiles and Houthi drones with multi-million dollar air defense missiles. We are running out of those.

Nor do we have the capacity to quickly replenish our stocks. The Biden-Harris administration has drained our war stocks to support the Ukrainians. Our industrial base is so depleted that the manufacture of new ordnance often takes years. We are perilously close to realizing the cupboard is bare.

Meanwhile, the impact on the world economy of the Houthi blockade has been devastating. Major shipping lines are rerouting ships to avoid the Red Sea entirely. Shipping costs are up. Supply chain delays are increasingly common.

There appears to be no let-up in the Houthi attacks. Only days ago Yemen’s Houthi rebels launched another attack on a merchant ship, the Greek-owned bulk carrier Motaro. At least three missiles were fired at the Motaro as it transited the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb.

The Iranians are not the only allies the Houthis have. The Russians provide them with the targeting data they need for their attacks. The intelligence goes from Moscow to Tehran, and then the Iranians pass it to the Houthis. This is, of course, in addition to the information the Iranians and the Houthis acquire on their own.

In August 2022, the Russians launched an Iranian intelligence satellite from Kazakhstan. That satellite provides one-meter resolution imagery for use by the Iranians. That is more than sufficient for the targeting of a ship. This intelligence is in addition to that provided by Russia’s spy satellites. Collectively this information provides very precise data on the locations of commercial vessels in the Red Sea, their speed, and their course.

Nor is this the extent of the support Russia may provide. Russian officials and the Houthis have held at least two meetings in Tehran this year. There is significant concern that the Russians are about to start supplying the Houthis with P-800 Yakhont missiles. The Yakhont is a supersonic anti-ship missile with a range of 300 kilometers (186 miles). Once armed with these weapons the Houthis would have a significantly greater ability to threaten US and allied warships in the Red Sea.

Our operations against the Houthis have been an unmitigated disaster. That is not because of any special prowess on the part of the Houthis or of the incompetence of our forces. It is because of the complete absence of a winning strategy on our part. The plain truth is that we are not actually attempting to win this war. We are doing the minimum amount required to allow this morally bankrupt administration to maintain the pretense that it is standing up to Tehran.

Were we, in fact, serious about ending the Houthi blockade of the Red Sea we would act decisively utilizing all the forms of power available to us. We would begin by enforcing existing sanctions and levying additional ones as necessary to bankrupt the Iranian regime. We would then empower our forces to take apart the entire Houthi/Iranian apparatus conducting operations in support of the Red Sea blockade.

We would intercept and sink every vessel carrying support to the Houthis from Iran and turn their crews over to the Saudis for detention. We would take out every missile battery and drone launching site, every command and control center, and every logistics node connected in any way to the ongoing attacks in the Red Sea. We would create a reality in which within seconds of launching a missile or drone at a vessel in the Red Sea every individual connected in any way to the attack would be eliminated.

That would take the fun out of shooting at ships at sea really fast.

We will not, of course, do any of that until a new administration takes power in DC. Until then we will continue to pretend to fight and continue to lose. NATO understands that. That’s why they’re retreating from the Red Sea.