New Pentagon Task Force on China Should Propose a Joint Command – US, Japan and Taiwan Can Combine Forces for Peace and Security

A Pentagon China Task Force was announced on February 10th at the suggestion of President Joe Biden.  The new Task Force is to come up with recommendations on “key priorities and decision points to meet the China challenge.”  Their first order of business should be to recommend a Joint Operational Command including the US, Japan and Taiwan.

No one can be sure where Biden is going with China, or whether he has the courage to confront China or stand up for Taiwan, or whether he will behave as he is behaving towards Iran and weaken critical alliances and cave in to Chinese ambitions, as he is caving in to the Mullahs.

The Task Force, which will be composed of 15 civilian and military Pentagon employees is to be headed by Dr. Ely Ratner, now a special Assistant to the Secretary of Defense but a long time aide to Biden on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and a Deputy National Security Advisor during the time Mr. Biden served as Vice President.  Ratner is an experienced China specialist most recently at the Center for New American Security, which was founded by Michèle Flournoy and Kurt M. Campbell. Campbell is the “Asia co-ordinator” or “Asia Tsar” of the Biden administration.

The personnel on the Task Force will be drawn from the Office of the secretary of Defense, from the Joint Staff and military services, combatant commands and the intelligence community.  Described as a “sprint effort” the Task Force will take up topics ranging from US strategy, technology and force structure, US alliances and partnerships and “defense relations” with China.

No one can predict the results that will come from the Task Force.  East Asia and the South China Sea are boiling pots at the moment, and the Chinese are clearly testing how far they can go in promoting their claims to dominate the entire “First Island Chain” that includes Taiwan and the Senkaku Islands where China is now challenging Japanese sovereignty.

Nor can anyone predict what the Biden administration will do –will they pick up the challenge or wilt under Chinese pressure?  The administration has warned China about threats to Taiwan as China has sent nuclear bombers near the island with eight Chinese H-6 bombers approaching Taiwan in one day.  The H-6 is a nuclear bomber that also carries cruise missiles.  The H-6’s spotted by Taiwan’s Air Force carried CJ-10 cruise missiles, similar to the US Tomahawk.  These air to ground cruise missiles can be fitted either with conventional or nuclear warheads.

While China is busy harassing Taiwan, China also has stepped up pressure on Japan over the uninhabited Senkaku Islands.  The Senkaku Islands are part of the First Island Chain that are located 250 miles west of Okinawa.  China says they are part of China.  Unlike other contentious properties, the Senkakus are uninhabited.  However Japanese legislators are urging joint Japanese and US military drills around two of the Senkaku Islands, Kuba and Taisho islands.  The area is a rich fishing ground and has important natural resources including the discovery of natural gas offshore and rare earth minerals.  Over the past year there have been more than a thousand Chinese vessels that have sailed in and around the Senkakus, including warships.  Now China has switched to using its Coast Guard (since Coast Guards are supposed to patrol a nation’s own property) and the Xi government has authorized the Coast Guard to fire on “foreign vessels” if needed. This came after Japan rejected a Chinese offer that amounted to joint sovereignty over the Senkakus.

The US has also stepped up activity in the South China Sea where China has illegally occupied and militarized a number of small islands and reefs, installing air defense systems, airfields and radars.  Two US aircraft carriers task forces, one the Theodore Roosevelt Carrier Strike Group and the other Nimitz Carrier Strike Group conducted military exercises in the area on February 9th which China criticized as “not conducive to regional peace and stability.”

The problem faced by the Task Force is how to engineer a US policy that recognizes that the area is a tinderbox that could erupt at any time and that Chinese ambitions may be out of control and difficult to tamp down.  The Task Force also will be acutely aware that recent war games and simulations if China attacked Taiwan leading to US involvement could result in the rapid defeat of American forces and the loss of Taiwan. While there may be a temptation of policy makers, including at the Defense Department, to use its military forces early in any attack on Taiwan, the on the ground reality may engage the United States from the start of any attack.  As Richard Bernstein wrote last August: “If China felt that the U.S. would intervene, military planners from the Pentagon and Rand who have gamed out scenarios believe a war over Taiwan would most likely begin with a massive attack by advanced Chinese missiles against three American targets: its bases on Okinawa and Guam, its ships in the Western Pacific, including aircraft carrier groups, and its air force squadrons in the region. ”

What Can the Task Force Accomplish?

The Task Force can simply continue the existing US China policy which is aimed mostly about improving the US military posture in East Asia.  As the US acquires new weapons, including a new generation of anti-ship missiles, and improves others (including land based air defenses), incrementally US capabilities will grow.  But as is obvious, new weapons take years to go from drawing board to deployment.  There is no short term fix other than organizing existing forces facing a potential enemy.

But the Task Force should not overlook the most important way to make our forces far more effective.  If we went to war today we would be largely on our own because there isn’t any means to direct and coordinate allied and friendly forces.  We do not have a joint operational command that includes Japan and Taiwan.  Consider for example what this means in practice.  Without a joint command it would be nearly impossible for friendly forces to operate against an enemy force for the simple reason that the forces would not be sharing intelligence, would not have real time shared intelligence and worse still, would not have synchronized IFF (identification friend of foe) systems.  In this age of long range air to air missiles, like the AIM-120 AMRAAM “Slammer” air to air missile which has a range of around 86 miles, you could easily shoot down friendly aircraft unless you share IFF systems and codes. Taiwan, Japan and the US have AMRAAM missiles.

It is equally important to recognize that if the three air forces (US, Japan and Taiwan) are combined, you have massive airpower.  The US and Japan have stealth fighters, but also F-15’s, F-16’s and F-18’s.  Taiwan has F-16’s, Mirage 2000s, and its home grown F-CK-1 jet fighter –overall Taiwan has 400 combat aircraft.  The US has 23 bases in Japan (including Okinawa ) with US Air Force and Marine aircraft.  The US Air Force has fighter jets stationed in the Misawa Air Base and Kadena Air Base. The US Marine Expeditionary Force on Okinawa has F-18’s, Harriers and most recently F35Bs.  The US also has around 50 fighter aircraft on each Nimitz-class aircraft carrier.  Putting it altogether, the three countries can put up around 1,000 fighter jets, both 4th and 5th generation platforms.  The US also has strategic bombers (B-52, B-1, B-2) that are primarily based on Guam.

The bottom line is that a Joint Command would be able to deploy 1,000 fighter aircraft and synchronize their operations.  Operating from a plethora of air bases and from the sea including aircraft carriers and amphibious assault ships.

In combination the challenge to China would be overwhelming.  Any idea they could knock out the combined air power of allied forces should make them think more sensibly in future and revise their plans accordingly.

If the new Task Force does its job it would develop a Joint Command and implement it as soon as possible.  Combining forces into a single joint operational command that explicitly includes Taiwan is the best way to deter China and dampen its expansionist ambitions.

191009-N-PJ626-5512  by U.S. Pacific Fleet is licensed under CC BY-NC 2.0