New Theory For Clinton-Gore Silence on Y2K Emerges as N.P.R., Gingrich Offer Contrasting Views of the Danger
(Washington, D.C.): In recent months, the growing appreciation in key business, media and
political circles that the Year 2000 (Y2K) Crisis is shaping up to be a potential national and
international catastrophe has been accompanied by an increasingly insistent question:
Why are
President Clinton and most especially his computer technology point-man, Vice President
Al Gore, nowhere to be seen on this issue?(1)
Why, in particular, is this so when leadership on
their part in raising public awareness about the potential disaster could, even at this late
date,
enable Americans and others to take steps that might substantially mitigate the Millennium Bug’s
effects?
The need for such leadership was made palpable in a commentary broadcast on 5 June by
National Public Radio’s “Morning Edition” program. The editorial by Lauren
Weinstein,
someone described as a Los Angeles-based technology writer, asserted that the most likely
problems people will experience as a result of the Millennium Bug will “be of the hassle
variety…hardly earth-shattering.” Weinstein declared that the Year 2000 problem is unlike — and
more benign than — the myriad other computer bugs which can cause a computer
system to crash
insofar as it can be “predicted.” Then, he concluded with the ultimate soporific: “One
thing’s for
sure: On January 1, 2000, the sun will come up,(2) even if
there are some computers that go
down.”
Cold Dawn
Given what is now known about the gravity of the looming Y2K crisis, it is
incredible that some
people still low-ball its likely repercussions. The indisputable fact is that disruptions will
affect
the operations of at least some of the mainframe computers responsible for vital
services like the
power grid, telecommunications, banking and control of air, train and ground transportation and
at least some of the microprocessors governing everything from elevators, nuclear
power plants,
military hardware and oil tankers and refineries.
Those knowledgeable about the Millennium Bug paint a very different picture than NPR’s
Weinstein. As one of the world’s leading experts, Peter de Jager, recently put
it: “If today were
December 31, 1999 and our systems were in the… state they are in today, tomorrow our economy
world-wide would stop. It wouldn’t grind to a halt, it would snap to a halt.”
What is most frightening is the fact that the gravity of the Y2K crisis will depend in
no small
measure on how well we use the time between now and its onset to fix what can be fixed —
and make contingency plans for dealing with what cannot be fixed in the time available.
Unfortunately, the time left is even less than one might think. While the
Y2K problem will
peak at midnight on 1 January 2000, its effects will begin to be felt far sooner. For example,
financial data will begin to be corrupted as companies, states and the federal government begin
their fiscal years on various dates throughout 1999.
The real danger is that those who downplay the damage the Y2K bug might cause,
discourage others from taking the threat seriously — and, more importantly, from taking
steps now that will mitigate its effects.
Wanted: Leadership
What is really needed, though, is to have those who are in a position to speak authoritatively
about the necessity of quickly addressing the Y2K crisis do so, at once. In particular,
the
American people are entitled to hear the truth from the President and Vice President —
who have, after all, the ultimate responsibility for safeguarding the security and economy of
the United States — about the urgent requirement for corrective action in both the
public
and private sectors. If ever there were a time for the bully pulpit to be used to good
effect, this
is it.
As Dr. Edward Yardini, Chief Economist and a Managing Director of
Deutsche Morgan
Grenfell, put it at a recent Center for Strategic and International Studies conference,
“We need to alarm the public. You’re not going to panic anybody a year and a half in
advance of the problem. You can alarm the public, and then the public can pressure the
politicians and the business leaders to do everything in their power to fix this problem.
If we don’t let the public in on the problem, then they will panic sometime in the
next year.“(4)
In short, while it is a safe bet that the sun will come up on 1 January 2000, if we haven’t
taken steps to address comprehensively the Y2K threat, it may prove to be a very cold dawn,
indeed.
Where’s Al?
The good news is that Vice President Gore is apparently not among those who understand
that
the Y2K problem will be considerably more than a small “hassle.”
neither he nor the President are using the “bully pulpit” to arouse to action their
countrymen — and those of other computer-dependent societies overseas.
This curious silence has begun to receive critical attention from other leading Americans. For
example, in a memorandum circulated last month to Members of Congress and others,
Steve
Forbes speculated that the Clinton Administration may be deferring warnings about the
Y2K
problem until after the November 1998 elections so as not to jeopardize the popular feeling of
economic well-being that may improve Democratic chances of regaining control of at least the
House of Representatives.(6) Many experts agree
that the loss of a further six months that
would result from such a deferral would further reduce the opportunity for corrective
action, probably sealing the fate of hundreds of thousands of American companies that
might
have survived the Millennium Bug — if given an unmistakable warning and the
opportunity to
prepare for it.
On 8 June, House Speaker Newt Gingrich made the observation that
Americans so affected
would be unlikely to forgive the Vice President for this avoidable tragedy: “I can’t
imagine
anything more destructive for Gore’s political future than to talk about the information
superhighway and then to have the largest wreck in history on the first of January
2000.”
An Alternative Theory for Clinton-Gore’s Lack of Visible Leadership on
Y2K
The salience of this political assessment seems so compelling as to invite speculation that
the
President and Vice President must have some different strategy for contending with — and
perhaps exploiting — the devastating effects of their failure of leadership. One of the
theories gaining currency in Y2K circles is that Messrs. Clinton and Gore are positioning
themselves to off-load the blame onto subordinates like Y2K “Czar” John Koskinen and the
Administration’s Cabinet officers, while seizing upon the upheaval caused by the Millennium Bug
to advance economic and political measures justified as crisis-management initiatives — measures
that would otherwise be anathema to the American people.
A prominent Y2K specialist who wished to remain anonymous recently shared with the Casey
Institute what may be a reasonable facsimile of the Clinton-Gore gameplan for turning the lemon
of the Millennium Bug into, if not lemonade, then “bug juice”:
- “…In this country, we have a tendency to kill the messenger. Those people that bring
- “Mr. Clinton and Mr. Gore have been noticeably silent on the matter in
spite of
congressional cries for a strong Administration position. [In particular,] Al Gore — the
self-appointed technology czar — has been conspicuously quiet about a major,
worldwide technology issue. No amount of questions can get him to discuss the Year
2000 Problem - “The President appointed John Koskinen to head up the President’s Year 2000 Council.
Mr. Koskinen came out of retirement to head this largely impotent council,
return to retirement after everything crashes around him on January 1, 2000. If ever
there was a ‘fall guy,’ John Koskinen is it. Besides, there is not enough time for a
new person to get settled, ascertain the problem, formulate a plan, and see it through to
implementation. Mr. Koskinen was appointed about two years too late to do anything
productive. - “The Year 2000 Council has no authority to act, allocate funds, or force
an agency to
do anything. It is a figurehead organization with monitoring or oversight
responsibilities, and little else. - “The White House and its representatives have repeatedly stated that the
responsibility
for Year 2000 correction efforts should be at the Cabinet level. This helps isolate
the President (and Vice President) from responsibility for any problems that will surely
occur, and allow appropriate finger-pointing at the department secretaries and agency
heads when their agencies fail. They will take the blame while the White House
stays at least one level removed from the fray.
us bad news are often tainted by that news. When the Year 2000 Problem hits,
those people who have been proclaiming its coming and warning us of its
consequences will be the ones most associated with it….President Clinton and Vice
President Gore have figured this one out some time ago.
“If you cannot solve the problem, get as far away from it as possible. Let others
take the point (and the heat) on it. To better illustrate this, let’s look at the
current situation regarding the Year 2000 and the White House:
- “Bill Clinton is the consummate politician. His ability to have scandals and other
problems slide right off him makes real Teflon look like glue. He knows how to let
others take the fall, and he knows how to turn a disaster into an opportunity. He is one
of the few people in the world who can fall into a pile of manure and get up wearing a
new tuxedo. This has been his modus operandi for his entire life, and he is not about
to
change now.
“How will Mr. Clinton turn this disaster into an opportunity, particularly for his
Veep?…By consistently distancing himself and his Administration from the
problem, Mr. Clinton has set the stage for his final and most poignant legacy.
He will be the President that saves us all from a terrible ordeal. He will be
the knight in shining armor that comes to our aid when we are most in need of
help. In essence, he will do nothing until the problem actually happens.
Then he will take action.
“When the Year 2000 Problem hits us with all of its force – economic chaos,
financial disruptions, closed businesses, power failures, food shortages and the
collapse of essential government services — Mr. Clinton will step forward to fix
everything. He will denounce and chastise the corporate CEOs that allowed
their companies to fail. He will fire the agency heads that allowed their
organizations to cease effective operations. He will wonder aloud how these
people could have allowed such a thing to happen. And then he will announce his
plan to make it all better. He will address the American people, as well as the rest
of the world, and tell us all about the actions he will take to make the problem go
away.
“He will declare a national emergency and institute the appropriate measures that
national emergencies require. He will impose rations on food and gas. He will
muster all the resources of the federal government and the private sector to fix the
problem. He will ask for (no, he will demand) emergency appropriations. He will
call out the National Guard, if necessary. Perhaps he will even nationalize key
industries.
“But no matter what he does, the American people will thank him for
it.
They will not be concerned that this disaster happened on his watch. They will
only be concerned that he is fixing their problems and making their lives better.
That is the most important thing, and that is what the American people will
remember.
“Republicans will be dumbfounded. No matter how hard they will try to pin the
blame on the White House, no one will care. When you have no electricity, no
dial tone on your telephone, food is hard to find, you can’t get your money out of
your bank, or your business is about to fail, you will only care about getting the
problems fixed as soon as possible. The person who can fix your problems is the
person to whom you will pledge eternal gratitude. Bill Clinton will step up to his
place in history as the man, not unlike Franklin Roosevelt, who picked us up and
carried us out of an economic crisis. He will become the hero of this disaster.
And of course, Al Gore is the man he will appoint to carry out his plan. The
gratitude of the American people will be overwhelming. The elections could
translate into a Democratic landslide, at least for Mr. Gore.”
The Bottom Line
This scenario may sound too Machiavellian for an administration characterized more by
incompetence than savoir faire. It will strike some as unfairly attributing to the
Clinton-Gore
team a ruthless willingness to subordinate the national good to individual political advantage.
Perhaps. Still, the foregoing theory appears a good candidate to fit the available
facts.
Republicans obviously have an interest in assuring the failure of such a strategy. More
importantly, however, every American irrespective of party affiliation should
want to see the
country spared the dire conditions that might be exploited in this way by the President and
Vice President.
Citizens of all political stripes and walks of life should, therefore, be demanding that
Messrs.
Clinton and Gore provide leadership on Y2K at once — not six or eighteen months
from
now. That leadership can only be expressed by visible, authoritative and energetic
warnings about
the gravity of the danger and by demonstrations of the determination of those at the highest levels
of government and private industry to ensure that corrective action receives the priority it
deserves, and must have.
– 30 –
1. See the Casey Institute Perspective entitled
Where’s AL? The Veep is Missing in Action on
the ‘Y2K’ Crisis (No. 98-C 76, 1 May 1998).
2. Interestingly, a few days after the Weinstein interview, another
contributor to “Morning
Edition” — Eric Schoenberg — used this same phrase to pooh-pooh concerns about the
substantial exposure millions of baby boomers face as a result of inadequate pension coverage.
Pre-dawn radio programs may have an understandable preoccupation with the sun rising; the
predictability of that event, however, should not be seen by the rest of us as a basis for pollyannish
illusions about impending crises having nothing to do with astrological phenomena.
3. See the Casey Institute Perspective entitled
‘Where’s Al?’: C.S.I.S. Symposium Indicts
A.W.O.L. Veep, Administration on Looming Y2K Crisis (
4. See previous Casey Institute products on the Y2K problem,
including: Bad News for the Veep:
Y2K Will Be ‘Al’s Mess’ (No. 98-C 93, 28 May
1998) and Galaxy 4 Meltdown: A Small
Foretaste of the Millennium Bug; Where’s Al? (No. 98-C
88, 21 May 1998).
5. See Stephen Barr and Rajiv Chandrasekaran, “For Gore, low
profile on a high-tech headache;
Vice President is silent on Year 2000 computer glitch that could haunt his campaign,”
Washington Post, 28 May 1998.
6. See the Casey Institute Perspective entitled
Forbes Urges Congress to Fill ‘Leadership
Vacuum’ on Year 2000 ‘Bug’; Y2k ‘Czar’ Tries to Shift Blame for Coming Crisis
(No. 98-C
85, 16 May 1998).
7. At the recent summit on the Y2K Crisis sponsored by the Center
for Strategic and International
Studies, it was revealed that Mr. Koskinen’s office has something like four full-time employees,
himself, a secretary and two interns.
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