North and South Korea Avoid War but North Korea Comes Away Looking Victorious

On August 4, 2015 three landmines injured two South Korean soldiers around the city of Paju, dramatically escalating tension between Seoul and Pyongyang. The State Department spokeswoman, Katina Adams, said, “we join the U.N. Command in condemning these violations of the armistice agreement.”

The investigation by the U.N. Command reached the same conclusion as the South Korean military, that the North Korean army had placed mines on the southern side of the demilitarized zone “DMZ” This action clearly violates the armistice agreement in that ended the Korean War in 1953. Maj. Gen. Ko Hong-mo, head of operations for South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Seoul “would make North Korea pay” for the landmine incident.

As part of their response, the South Korean government reactivated a network of speakers used to broadcast information and propaganda into North Korea that had been deactivated since 2004.

North Korea threatened to use force to halt the broadcasts, as high-level talks continued. On August 20, 2015 North Korea fired shells across the de-militarized zone. The South Korean military also reported that around 70 percent of North Korean submarines appeared to be away from their bases and amphibious landing vessels had been deployed along the border.

On August 21, 2015 North Korea ordered troops to be “on war footing.” Nearly 4,000 South Korean residents were evacuated due to the possibility of impending conflict. On August 24, 2015 North Korea and South Korea reach an agreement to de-escalate recent tension. South Korea received a pro forma apology it had demanded over the recent landmine incident and once again ceased broadcasts critical of the north.

North Korea appears to come off as the victor in these talks. Initially, Kim Jong-Un intentionally violated the DMZ, leading to two South Korean deaths. South Korea responded appropriately by broadcasting into the North. But North Korea was able to increase pressure by escalating, yet again, with the military maneuvers and shelling, causing Seoul to appear to have backed down.

Because of its success, we may expect to see Kim Jong-Un use this kind of escalation again in the future, which increases, the potential for conflict on the peninsula.