Party Congress will put China on path to war

Editor’s Note: This piece originally appeared in Japan Forward, and was reprinted in Asia Times

US and Japan must get down to business fast – Tokyo taking what it has, defense-wise, and making the best of it

Japan’s defense is changing, and bigger defense budgets and capability improvements are on the way. Exactly when this will occur is unclear, though Japan’s prime minister and other officials usually note, “within five years.”

By Japan’s standards this is lightning speed. However, the Chinese threat that has concentrated Japanese minds on national defense is perhaps coming at a much higher speed.

And once the 20th Communist Party of China (CPC) Congress takes place on October 16, a conflict in East Asia may arrive soon enough — and long before the contemplated improvements in Japanese defense capabilities. Japan may indeed find itself in the position of having to fight with what it has, not what it would like to have.

Why the CPC Congress matters

This is the first CPC Congress since Mao Zedong’s era that will solidify the position of a Chinese leader who can take China to war – and who probably will do so if current trends remain as they are.

Put simply, this CPC Congress is putting China on the path to war. These gatherings are always “rubber stamp” sorts of affairs, but this one looks to set Xi Jinping in power indefinitely – without any real restraints. His opposition is marginalized, if not thoroughly cowed or imprisoned.

The groundwork has been laid and the dirty work done. It’s not as if previous Chinese leaders had been nice guys, but Xi is the first to combine the capability to go to war with the messianic desire to do so – if he can’t get what he wants via intimidation. He sees himself as a man of destiny who will restore China to its rightful place in the world.

Capabilities of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) have developed to the point that the Communist Party leadership (and Xi in particular) believe China can conduct a short, sharp war (or maybe even a long, sharp war) near its borders and succeed.

What an additional term for Xi means

China has spent the last 45 years or so developing economically and building up its military. It has been recovering from the wretched Mao era.

But now Xi Jinping is likely to roll the dice and see what he can get by force and intimidation.

However, as noted, wars are unpredictable. And at minimum, besides taking heavy casualties, war would make China’s economy take a huge hit as its foreign trade shrinks. So will its access to essential foreign exchange, as China (and Chinese) become pariahs in the civilized world.

In China for the last 45 years there has been a sense that things will keep improving. Those days may be coming to an end. Life is going to get much harder for most Chinese.

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Official visit of the President of China by UN Geneva is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND 2.0