‘Peace in our time’

(Washington, D.C.): The United States will rue the day it entered into the “agreement” on
Kosovo announced today by the so-called “G-8” foreign ministers. As with most defeats,
America will find itself humiliated, its strategic interests harmed and its Treasury depleted by the
obligation to pay costly war reparations. By contrast, the victors — Slobodan Milosevic and his
Russian sponsors — will find new legitimacy, an enhancement of their strategic position in the
region “and more generally,” and be the beneficiaries of vast sums of U.S.-subsidized international
largesse.

Worst of all, this deal will signal to Yevgeny Primakov’s other clients — from North Korea to
Iraq
to Cuba — that this U.S. government can be counted on to reward, rather than punish, the most
despicable and aggressive behavior. History teaches us that such signals tend to beget such
behavior, not deter it.

What’s Wrong With This Picture

The following are just a few of the problems that will arise from President Clinton’s latest
expediency-driven bit of policy ad hocery:

• Milosevic will remain in power, probably unindicted, certainly unrepentant, and
  ready to
  strike again.

• The Russians will be rewarded for their willingness to reoccupy part of Eastern
  Europe — a part, at that, they were unable to wrest from Marshal Tito five decades ago.
  What
  will the full cost prove to be, in political, strategic and economic terms?

• The fact that the Russians would not agree to mention NATO in
  connection with the
  “international” force to be inserted in Kosovo does not mean that NATO will not have
  to foot the bill, just that it will not run the show.

• The UN Security Council will become the final arbiter — a further sign
  that NATO’s, to
  say nothing of the United States’, freedom of action is being circumscribed.

• It seems unlikely that there will really be a “semi-permissive” environment in
  Kosovo.
  The Serb forces will not completely leave; the Kosovo Liberation Army will wage guerilla war;
  and American and other international forces will be caught in the cross-fire.

• Under those circumstances, it seems hard to believe that “all the
  refugees” will actually
  return home — even if they had someplace to return to.

• The American taxpayer will be obliged to pay the lion’s share of the huge costs
  associated with rebuilding not only Kosovo, but Milosevic’s Serbia, as well.

• America’s defense resources will be further dissipated by the diversion of
  funds needed to
  pay for the care and feeding of the refugees (not only at Fort Dix, but in theater) and those
  associated with rebuilding Serbia. Replenishment of the war stocks squandered in this
  campaign will be slow in coming and probably incomplete — leaving the U.S. military even less
  prepared to deal with the real, strategically significant “contingencies” now in the
  offing.

• The unbowed Milosevic will almost certainly insist that the deal be sweetened
  further.
  The Russians will be only too happy to oblige, adding further to the ignominy of NATO’s
  defeat and the glory of the Kremlin’s jujitsu. And the Clinton Administration will
  neither want
  nor be able to say “No.”

The Bottom Line

The troubling portent of the diplomatic handwriting on the wall was sufficiently obvious that
—
even before the “G-8” ministers did their thing — two of the Nation’s most perspicacious
columnists, George Will and href=”index.jsp?section=papers&code=99-D_55a1″>Jeff Jacoby, this morning published the attached columns,
respectively in the Washington Post and Boston Globe, — anticipating the
collapse of the
Clinton/NATO position on Kosovo. As Mr. Will observed:

NATO’s minuet of capitulation has begun, accompanied by the U.S. media’s
celebration of Jesse Jackson’s “success.” How likely is it that Milosevic, Jackson’s
partner in prayer, is going to be deposed and put on trial?

It is deeply demoralizing, and perhaps even de-moralizing, for civilized
people to watch justice traduced. In recent years Americans have been
mesmerized by the extremely public spectacles of O. J. Simpson essentially getting
away with murder and Bill Clinton essentially getting away with perjury and
obstruction of justice. Now Milosevic may be getting away with war crimes on a
scale not seen in Europe since the Third Reich collapsed 54 years ago this week.

For his part, Mr. Jacoby concluded:

The bombs are still falling on Yugoslavia, but the choreography of arranging a cease-fire
and cobbling together a deal is underway. Before long the bombs will stop.
Milosevic and his junta will not be obliterated. The Kosovars will not be made whole.
As the 20th century ends, it is still possible for tyrants — even in Europe — even at
NATO’s doorstep — to drive out minorities at the point of a bayonet. Such is
Clinton’s legacy to the world. History will not be kind.