Putin’s candidate in the US presidential election – Biden

For the first time in his quarter-century in power, Vladimir Putin publicly, directly, and unequivocally indicated his desired winner of the U.S. presidential election.

In a February 14 interview with Pavel Zarubin, a journalist in Putin’s presidential pool since 2005 and the anchor of the most prestigious annual program on Russian state owned TV, Putin pronounced the name of his preferred candidate: Joe Biden.

Pavel Zarubin: Then the question that was raised four years ago, and now, it turns out, is becoming relevant again. Who is better for us: Biden or Trump?

Vladimir Putin: Biden. He is a more experienced person, he is predictable, he is a politician of the old formation.

(Official Kremlin statement in Russian. Semi-official TASS report in English)

Until yesterday, in the public space, he tried repeating the standard principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of another country: “We will work with any U.S. leader who has the confidence of the American people.”

However, this time the stakes are so high that Putin changed his usual rule.

Moreover, he explained what arguments guide him to be “for” and “against” the two main American presidential candidates.

Putin on Trump:

“Trump has always been called a non-systemic politician. He has his own view on how the United States should develop relations with its allies…”

“How is Trump’s position different in this sense? …He wanted to force the Europeans to increase their defense spending, or, as he said, “then let them pay us for protecting them, for opening the atomic umbrella over their heads…”

“I think that NATO is of no use at all, there is no point…”

Putin about Biden:

“…when I met with Biden in Switzerland, it was, however, several years ago, three years, but even then they were already saying that he was incompetent. I didn’t see anything like it. Well, yes, he looked at his piece of paper. To be honest, I looked at mine. There is nothing special about this. But the fact that somewhere, getting out of a helicopter, he hit his head on this helicopter – well, who among us hasn’t hit his head somewhere?…”

“I am not a doctor and do not consider myself to have the right to give any comments on this matter…”

“Biden. He is a more experienced person, he is predictable, he is a politician of the old formation.”

In other words, the main dangers Trump poses for Putin are the Republican’s unconventional nature, his personal unpredictability, his push for NATO allies to increase their defense spending, and his unorthodox approach to strengthening the alliance, which guarantees vigorous opposition to the aggressive Kremlin.

Biden’s main advantages for Putin are his old age, incapacity, predictability, and lack of decisive resistance to Putin’s aggression.

Significantly, Putin tried to disguise his support for Biden with routine objections to White House actions: “I believe that the position of the current administration is extremely harmful and erroneous. And I told President Biden about this at one time.” But Putin’s public support for Biden means that his words are a cheap ploy to hide the fact that even Biden’s stated “harmful and erroneous” position is less dangerous for Putin than Trump’s unpredictable policies.

Days earlier the author explained in a Newsweek article why Putin the Wolf turned into Putin the Sheep:

It’s worth remembering: Putin launched new wars under every coinciding U.S. president except one.

Clinton had Chechnya; Bush Jr. had Georgia; Obama had Ukraine and Syria; and Biden had the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. For Putin’s near-quarter century in power, only one didn’t see a new invasion: Donald Trump.

During Trump’s term, there was no new Putin-led war; Russia’s “private” military company the Wagner Group was annihilated by the U.S.-Kurdish strikes near Khasham in Syria; U.S. missiles punished the Assad regime’s air force for using chemical weapons; North Korea’s Kim paused his nuclear testing; and the number of Ukrainian military personnel killed on the contact line in Donbass dropped 16 times by my calculation.

In front of Trump, Putin the wolf turned into Putin the sheep.

The solution to this seeming puzzle might be Putin’s lack of understanding of Trump. Biden isn’t a secret to Putin and is fully predictable. Putin is smart enough to understand well Biden, Obama, Bush, Clinton. And he uses that knowledge in his favor.

The only U.S. president he did not understand was Trump.

Putin is not alone in that.

There’s a chance that Trump will become president again in 2025. We don’t know what kind of leader Trump might be in his second term. Trump’s main feature is his unpredictability—for everyone, including Putin.

Would Trump praise Putin like he has done before, and continue his talk of their “wonderful relationship?”

Would Trump launch missiles, as he did in Syria after Khan Shaykhun?

Would he provide “a lot of ammunition” to Ukraine as he once promised?

Would Trump resort to big threats against the Kremlin, as he did in his private conversations with Putin?

Or all of this at same time?

Or something else?

We just don’t know. It’s impossible to make any firm predictions. But this unpredictability seems to give all of us some chance for hope.