Regime change is not a game for amateurs

(This is a developing story. We will update this piece as we acquire additional information.)

Yesterday, the Cuban Border Guard intercepted a boat registered in Florida off the coast of the island nation. According to Havana, individuals on the boat then opened fire. The Cubans returned fire. Four people on the boat from Florida were killed. Six were captured. One Cuban Border Guard officer was wounded. Another individual on shore, whom the Cubans say was there to meet the individuals on the American boat, was also detained, according to the Cuban government.

Havana says that all the individuals killed or captured were part of an operation intended to topple the government in Havana.

Cuban authorities claim they seized assault rifles, handguns, homemade incendiary devices, bulletproof vests, telescopic sights, and camouflage uniforms from the intercepted vessel. They also noted that some of those involved have “criminal records” and that two of them were listed in national records related to previous investigations.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio has denied any official American government role in the incident.

What else do we really know at this stage? The Cubans have identified six of the ten individuals who were on the boat that approached their coast. They are Amijail Sánchez González, Leordan Enrique Cruz Gómez, Conrado Galindo Sariol, José Manuel Rodríguez Castelló, Cristian Ernesto Acosta Guevara, and Roberto Azcorra Consuegra. The person arrested on shore has been identified as Duniel Hernández Santos.

The names Amijail Sánchez González and Leordan Enrique Cruz Gómez were on a list presented to the United Nations last year by the Cuban regime. They were described as “terrorists” on that list, meaning presumably they were individuals working to overthrow the Communist regime in Havana.

Duniel Hernández Santos was reportedly deported from the U.S. by ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) before the incident. Whether or not that is true or he was “deported” by the United States Government for the purpose of participating in this operation remains unknown. The Cubans are claiming he was sent to the island deliberately as part of the plot.

The brother of Michel Ortega Casanova, Misael Casanova, who resides in the United States, has told the New York Post that his brother fell into an “obsessive and diabolical quest” for Cuba’s freedom. Misael told the Post that his brother “didn’t think about the consequences or their own lives.”

In a 2025 interview with Martí Noticias (a U.S. Government-funded broadcaster targeting Cuba), Conrad Galindo Saliol advocated for armed struggle to overthrow the Cuban government.

Family and friends have identified Ledian Padrón Guevara, 25 years old, as one of the possible, yet unidentified, dead following the confrontation that occurred yesterday. According to information provided by individuals close to him, Ledian resided in Houston and recently relocated to Miami, where he was to begin training to participate in a possible military action against the Castro regime.

The smell of this, then, at this stage, is that the Cubans are telling the truth when they say they intercepted a boat carrying individuals intent on overthrowing the Communist regime in Havana. The sense is also that this effort was doomed from the start.

Cuban intelligence is no joke. They penetrated the Cuban exile community in Florida a long time ago. If you are sitting in a bar in Miami talking to your buddies about your big plans to overthrow the government in Havana, you can bet money that somebody sitting at the table is reporting every plan you make to Havana, and that a reception party will be waiting for you.

I don’t know how Santos ended up back in Cuba as the guy who was to meet the boat on shore. Maybe he really was deported. Maybe somebody sent him. One thing I do know is this. In the current climate, if somebody from the U.S. who has been living in Florida all of a sudden shows up back in Cuba, Cuban intelligence is going to be all over him. Maybe they will just follow him. More likely, they are going to pull him in and sweat him, and when they are done, he is going to be working for them, not the boys back in the States.

In short, the likelihood is that the Cubans did not just stumble on a boat in their territorial waters. They saw this op coming a mile away, monitored it from beginning to end, and only let it run as long as they did, so they could maximize the number of pieces they took off the board.

I don’t know who set this all in motion. If I did, I probably could not say in this forum. What I do know is that regime change is not a game for amateurs, and it is going to take a lot more professionalism and tradecraft than this to free Cuba.

Originally published by AND Magazine