Revocation of Bahraini Cleric’s Citizenship Marks Sectarian Tension in Gulf Region

On June 20^th 2016, Bahrain revoked the citizenship of Shia cleric Ayatollah Isa Qassim. Qassim is the most prominent cleric in Bahrain, which is majority Shia, and has recently backed Shiite protests against the Saudi-backed Sunni monarchy.

According to a U.S diplomatic cable released by Wikileaks, Qassim was the spiritual leader of the prominent Shia political group, Al-Wefaq National Islamic Society as well as of the Bahraini Shia community. This move comes immediately after a Bahraini court ordered the closure of Al-Wefaq, a move that drew sharp criticism from Shiite groups around the world. The groups, including Iranian proxy Hezbollah, denounced the move, claiming that it exposed the “autocratic nature of the Al- Khalifa regime”. In contrast, DT News, the official news agency of Bahrain, claimed that Al-Wefaq’s practices targeted respect for the rule of law and created an environment for terrorism; it also claimed that they fostered foreign intervention in Bahrain’s affairs, most likely a reference to Iran’s backing of Shia groups in Middle East conflicts.

Al-Wefaq is the largest political party in Bahrain, holding 17 of the 40 seats in the lower house. Despite this, it is often outvoted by a coalition of Sunni parties. Al-Wefaq specifically advocates for a Constitutional Monarchy and ending the influence of the royally-appointed upper house of parliament; currently policies must be approved by both houses and ratified by the King.

Bahrain has seen a recent upsurge in Shia protests, after Saudi Cleric Nimr Al-Nimr was executed by the Saudi government in January; Al-Nimr has become a prominent martyr of the anti-Khalifa movement; these activists have been campaigning in Bahrain since 2011, when large-scale protests nearly paralyzed the small island nation.

On a larger scale, the clashes in Bahrain are reflective of wider power politics in the Middle East. The Bahraini monarchy is actively supported by Saudi Arabia, the Sunni hegemon of the region. The Saudis seek to preserve their sphere of influence in the Gulf Region; this is why they continue to support the monarchy’s crackdowns on Shia protests, in some cases sending in their own troops to quell unrest.

More specifically, the Saudi bloc fears, not without reason, that the Shia protest movements are supported by Iran, who sees Bahrain, with its majority Shia population, as a perfect target into which to extend their reach while checking the power of Saudi Arabia. This proxy conflict is not unique to Bahrain; in Yemen, Saudi Arabia is combatting the Iran-backed Houthi Rebels, which have seized control of a large portion of the country including its capital, Sana’a.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Commander Qassem Soleimani denounced the stripping of Isa Qaseem’s citizenship, warning that the Bahraini monarchy had best stay away from him (Qaseem) or face “serious repercussions, including armed resistance by people and overthrow of the Al-Khalifa dynasty.” Iran has repeatedly been credibly accused of facilitating terrorist activity in Bahrain.

It is unclear whether Soleimani is implying that Iran intends to increase support for activities intended to destabilize the Khalifa regime, but it will most likely be interpreted as such by Manama and Riyadh. If Iran is successful in destabilizing Bahrain, it is possible that Saudi Arabia would react with a military intervention similar to Yemen, doing everything in their power to avoid an Iranian proxy on its border.