Russian Air Raid on U.S.-backed SDF

On September 16^th, the Russian military claims it carried out an air raid targeting Islamic State (IS) members, but ended up striking and injuring six members of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The Russian strike occurred early Saturday, hitting an area east of the Euphrates River, near the city of Deir Ezzor.

U.S. military disputes the Russian version of events alleging the Russians knew the location they targeted contained SDF and U.S. troops. The U.S. had reportedly denied a request made by the Russian military to carry out a strike in the area, but the Russian military carried out the strike anyway.

The Russians deny the U.S. accusations, claiming the U.S. military was forewarned of the strike.

This Russian strike comes less than two weeks after the two separate groups, the Syrian army and its allies and the U.S.-backed SDF began offensives to take back Deir Ezzor from IS. Both offensives have converged on IS from opposite sides of the Euphrates river, Syria and its allies on the west with U.S.-backed SDF on the east.

When both offensives began, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) stated that they had no intention of crossing the Euphrates River and the SDF said that while they didn’t expect clashes, they would respond if attacked by the SAA.

On September 15^th and again on the 18^th, the SAA began sending troops across the Euphrates River, contradicting statements made earlier in the offensive. The SDF has said it would not allow the Syrian army to cross the river and would consider shots fired in their direction as an attack but they have not yet reacted to the Syrians crossing the river.

The Russian strike is the first direct conflict between the two forces in the Deir Ezzor province, but tensions have been high for months.

In June, the SDF accused the Syrian military of bombing its positions in Ar Raqqah.

Also in June, the U.S. shot down a Syrian warplane after it struck targets near SDF fighters. The Syrian plane was downed in self-defense after Syrian forces attacked an SDF-held town in the Ar Raqqah Governorate.

There is likely to be conflict between the Syrian army and its allies and the U.S.-led anti-ISIS coalition in the near future as the two sides continue in close proximity. Syria has previously stated that it is prepared to fight any force, whether it is the Islamic State, SDF, or any other foreign force in order to reestablish complete control of Syrian territory.

The Syrian Democratic Forces is attempting establish and protect a federal system in Northern Syria. SDF believes that the U.S. will stay in Syria after the Islamic State is defeated. U.S. officials have stressed that the primary goal is to defeat IS, and any statements regarding a broader strategy for the area remain vague at best.

The Russian goal in Syria is to maximize Russian influence in the region, and prevent the U.S. from establishing a foothold in Syria. While Russia continues to back Syria militarily, they’ve suggested the possibility of allowing safe zones for opposition groups in the country which would prevent Assad from total victory and insure Assad’s continued reliance on Russia.

Compromise between the groups may be possible but if Assad is determined to reestablish complete control over Syria, he cannot allow Northern Syria to remain under SDF control. If so the outcome is likely to hinge on whether it is the U.S. or Russia which best supports their proxies and allies.