Situation Report: As major cities fall to the Taliban, the US prepares to evacuate Kabul

As of August 13, the Taliban controls 17 of Afghanistan’s 34 provincial capitals- all of which been captured within the last week. The latest provincial capital to fall was Kandahar, Afghanistan’s second largest city. Kandahar’s capture is critically strategic for the Taliban due to its international airport and industrial/agricultural outputs. The city was also the birthplace of the onset of the insurgency in the 1990’s and functioned as the militants’ capital for years, making its capture even more symbolic. At this pace, Kabul could fall in a matter of weeks.

By carrying out simultaneous sieges on provincial hubs, Taliban militants are overwhelming Afghan security forces. Already stretched thin, the security forces are unable to maintain stable resupply lines to provincial hubs that have been cut off by Taliban advances. So far, it appears the Afghan forces have not carried out any operations to retake any of the 17 capitals captured by the Taliban. In addition, government officials and prominent anti-Taliban warlords have surrendered amidst the chaos. Khalid Payenda, Afghanistan’s finance minister, resigned and left the country in early August. Mohamamd Ismail Khan, a warlord and former governor who is best known for resisting the Taliban publically surrendered days later.

In response to the Taliban’s frightening advances, the Pentagon announced it would drastically scale back its embassy in Kabul and send in roughly 3,000 troops temporarily to help evacuate staff. Nearly 1,400 staff members remain at the U.S. Embassy in Kabul and that number is expected to drop significantly.

In July, President Biden said that U.S. military operations in Afghanistan would terminate on August 31, leaving around 650 troops in the country to secure the embassy and airport. In the same speech, Biden urged Taliban leaders and the Afghan government to come together and establish a peace agreement going forward. However, the Taliban’s rapid offensive in the last seven days indicate the chance for a lingering Afghan government is doubtful.

In addition to evacuation of U.S. personnel from Kabul, American negotiators are attempting to prevent a U.S. Embassy attack at the hands of the Taliban. According to the New York Times, Chief American envoy Zalmay Khalilzad is hoping to use financial aid and other forms of U.S. assistance as incentives to secure the embassy.

Canada, Denmark, Norway and the UK are following suit and sending troops to help evacuate their perspective embassies in the country. More nations are likely to follow.